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A Greek default within the zone – the worst for

The euro seems to be paying more attention to teh troubles in Greece and less to  US indicators and euro-zone ones.

All in all, EUR/USD is trading within a wide range for quite some time. These moves are quite interesting, but a more interesting move would be a break down out of the range towards parity.  This  scenario could make the break, according to Kit Juckes of SocGen:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

“The Greek crisis was ignored by the FX market last week as peripheral spreads widened and the Euro rallied. This morning, it is cited as the reason for the Euro to be softer and the dollar to be rallying again.

The reasons given for day-to-day gyrations of EUR/USD within its broad 1.0450-1.1050 range need to be taken with a pinch of salt!

euro and Greek bonds Greece German 10 year yields and EURUSD April 2015

However, a Greek default without ‘Grexit’, might be the single most negative outcome for the Euro, and ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio, pointedly observed that default doesn’t automatically imply exit. Meanwhile, as the government scrambles around for cash, there is much talk of Greece introducing a parallel currency.”

Kit Juckes – SocGen

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.