It is becoming a habit: a sell-off of the Japanese stock market, alongside a crash of USD/JPY, and on a Thursday. This time, the pair broke under 95 and found a bottom only at 93.78.
This is around 1000 from the peak the pair reached in May. The Nikkei 225 index crashed 6.35% to 12,445.38. The days of 15K+ seem far. Where will the authorities say enough?
Every new low for the pair triggers speculation that the BOJ or the MOF will intervene in currency markets to weaken the yen. However, with USD/JPY much higher than it was in previous interventions, the barrier for intervention is higher as well. Japan is already doing a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The result, a weaker yen, is acceptable for its partners, as is a natural correction, but the unnatural nature of a direct intervention requires lower levels.
In a recent interview, Simon Smith of FxPro mentioned the 90 level as a place that could allow more room for an intervention. With the magnitude of movements seen in recent weeks, the 90 level is not that far off.
USD/JPY managed to stabilize above 94. The round 95 level now turns into resistance. The pair is basically back to the levels traded before Kuroda became the head of the BOJ.
For more levels and analysis, see the USD/JPY forecast.
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