AUD/USD lost ground during the week but recovered, ending the week almost unchanged. AUD/USD closed just above the 0.82 line. The upcoming week has just five releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Australian job numbers were excellent, with impressive readings from Employment Change and the unemployment rate. This helped the Aussie recover after starting the week with losses. In the US, last week’s data did not impress, as manufacturing and employment numbers disappointed. On the bright side, consumer confidence continued to push higher.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- MI Inflation Gauge: Sunday, 23:30. This release, published monthly, helps analysts track official CPI data, which is released every quarter. The indicator has been posted very small gains and the November reading came in at 0.1%.
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 00:30. This indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as cars and trucks are expensive durable goods. The indicator has been in an extended slump, with declines in four of the past five readings. The November release came in at -0.6%. Will we see an improvement in the upcoming release?
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. Consumer confidence is closely linked to consumer spending, so stronger readings are bullish for the Australian dollar. The indicator had an awful November, declining by 5.7%. This marked its worst showing in seven months. The markets will be hoping for a turnaround in the December release.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. This report looks at the inflation expectations of consumers over the next 12 months, which is useful in predicting actual inflation. The indicator came in at 3.4% in the November release.
- HIA New Home Sales: Thursday, Tentative. This indicator, which tends to show some volatility, is an important gauge of the strength of the housing sector. In November, the indicator posted a strong gain of 3.0%, one of its best readings in 2014. The markets will be hoping for another gain in the upcoming release.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD started the week at 0.8222 and dropped sharply to a low of 0.8068. The pair then rebounded, climbing to a high of 0.8295, as resistance held at 0.8313 (discussed last week). The pair closed at 0.8207.
Live chart of AUD/USD:
[do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 0.8660. This line has held firm since late November. 0.8550 is next.
0.8466 switched to a resistance role in the first week of December and remains a strong line as the pair trades close to the 0.82 line.
0.8313 is the next line of resistance. It held firm as the pair posted gains late in the week.
0.8150 is an immediate support line. It was tested as the pair dropped under the 0.80 level before rebounding.
0.8013 remains a strong support level. This line is the last barrier in front of the psychologically critical 0.80 level.
0.7978 was an important cap in January 2007.
0.7904 has provided support since July 2009.
0.7799 is the final support level for now. This line has remained intact since September 2008.
I am bearish on AUD/USD.
The Aussie managed to hold its own last week, but market sentiment remains bullish on the US economy, so the greenback could resume posting gains. Monetary divergence between the Fed and RBA will continue to weigh on the Australian dollar.
In our latest podcast we analyze the SNBomb, do an ECB Preview, discuss US wages, dive into Saudi costs and the look at the Aussie
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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