AUD/USD continues to struggle, as the pair dropped to its lowest levels since May 2009. The pair closed the week with slight losses, dipping to 0.7440. There are nine releases this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Fed minutes showed caution towards a rate hike and were dovish in general. The minutes also mentioned Greece, as the current Eurozone crisis is clearly on the mind of the Fed. In Australia, the RBA maintained interest rates at 2.0% and job numbers were better than expected. The ongoing troubles in the Chinese stock markets that go hand in hand with falling commodity prices weighed on the Aussie.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Chinese Trade Balance: Monday, Tentative. Chinese key events can have a strong impact on the movement of AUD/USD, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The indicator surged in May, with a trade surplus of $59.5 billion. This easily beat the estimate of $44.9 billion. Another strong release is expected in the June report, with the estimate standing at $57.0 billion.
- NAB Business Confidence: Monday, 1:30. This key indicator improved to 7 points in May, compared to a reading of 3 points a month earlier. This marked a 9-month high.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. This indicator has struggled, posting three declines in the past four readings. The June reading was dismal, with a sharp decline of 6.9%. Will the indicator bounce back in the July report?
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Wednesday, 1:30. The indicator has posted two straight declines, as consumers are being more cautious before purchasing big-ticket items such as new vehicles. The May report came in at -1.3%.
- Chinese GDP: Wednesday, 2:00. GDP continues to fall, as the Q1 reading slipped to 7.0%, compared to 7.3% in Q4 of 2014. The downswing is expected to continue, with the estimate of Q2 standing at 6.9%.
- Chinese Industrial Production: Wednesday, 2:00. This important manufacturing indicator improved to 6.1% in May, within expectations. Little change is expected in the June release.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This indicator is useful in tracking actual inflation levels. The indicator slipped to 3.0% in May, down from 3.6% a month earlier.
- NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Thursday, 1:30. This report is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The indicator slipped to a flat 0.0% in Q2, its weakest showing in 7 quarters.
- CB Leading Index: Friday, 00:00. This index is based on 7 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The index has been struggling, having posted two straight declines. The May report came in at -0.3%.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7485 and quickly climbed to a high of 0.7533. The pair then reversed directions, touching a low of 0.7371, testing support at 0.7403 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7440.
Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with resistance at 0.7901. This line was an important cap in March.
0.7798 was an important resistance level for much of June.
0.7692 remains a strong resistance line.
0.7602 has some breathing room as the pair trades at low levels.
0.7528 is an immediate resistance line.
0.7403 has provided support since May 2009, but was tested during the week as the Aussie continues to struggle. Will the pair continue to lose ground and break through this line?
0.7266 marked a high point for the pair in January 2009.
0.7113 has held firm since April 2009.
0.7011 was a key support level in March 2006. It is the final support line for now.
I am bearish on AUD/USD.
Worries about Greece were expressed in the Fed minutes. If the Greek crisis is resolved, there are less hurdles for the Fed to hike in September. Key Chinese data, led by GDP, could have a significant impact on the Aussie’s fortunes this week.
In our latest podcast we clarify Greece and also China, oil, AUD and more:
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Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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