AUD/USD was unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9385. There is only one release this week, as RBA Deputy Governor delivers remarks in Melbourne. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
In the US, the Federal Reserve’s statement that interest rates would remain at low levels weighed on the US dollar. Unemployment Claims and the Philly Manufacturing Index both improved in May. Australian events were uneventful, and although the Aussie showed some movement in both directions, AUD/USD was unchanged last week.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe Speaks: Wednesday, 3:00. Lowe will deliver remarks at an event in Melbourne. The markets will be looking for clues as to future monetary moves by the RBA.
*All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD opened the week at 0.9390 and then lost ground, dropping to a low of 0.9322. The pair then reversed directions, pushing above the 0.94 line and touching a high of 0.9432, as resistance at 0.9442 (discussed last week) remained intact. The pair closed the week at 0.9385.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 0.9910, which has remained firm since last May.
0.9758 marked the start of a rally by the US dollar, which saw the pair drop as low as 0.8650.
This is followed by the round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.
0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.
0.9442 held firm as the pair showed some strength and closed in on this level for the second straight week. This line marked the high point of the pair in November, which saw the Aussie go on a sharp slide and drop below the 0.89 line.
0.9368 was breached early in the week as the pair lost ground but recovered. It remains in a support role, but is a weak line and could face pressure early in the week.
0.9283 faced pressure during the week but has some breathing room as the pair bounced back towards the 0.94 level. The next line of support is at 0.9175.
The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March.
The final support line for now is 0.8893. AUD/USD broke above this line in February, and has posted strong gains since then.
I am neutral on AUD/USD.
The Aussie continues to hold its own against its US counterpart, as the pair remains close to the 0.94 line. With no economic releases scheduled out of Australia this week, key US numbers will have a significant impact on the movement of the pair, particularly housing and employment data.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.