Home AUD/USD Forecast June 23-27

AUDUSD Forecast June23-27AUD/USD  was unchanged last  week,  as the pair closed  at 0.9385. There is only one release this week, as RBA Deputy Governor delivers remarks in Melbourne. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

 In the US, the Federal Reserve’s  statement  that  interest rates would remain at low levels weighed on the US dollar. Unemployment Claims and the Philly Manufacturing Index both  improved in May. Australian events were uneventful, and although the Aussie showed some movement in both directions, AUD/USD was unchanged last week.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

 

  1. RBA  Deputy Governor Philip Lowe Speaks: Wednesday, 3:00.  Lowe will deliver remarks at an event in Melbourne. The markets will be looking for clues as to future monetary moves by the RBA.

*All times are GMT.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.9390 and then lost ground, dropping to a low of 0.9322. The pair then reversed directions, pushing above the 0.94 line and touching a high of 0.9432, as resistance at 0.9442 (discussed last week) remained intact. The pair closed the week at 0.9385.

 

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  start  with resistance at 0.9910, which has remained firm since last May.

0.9758 marked the start of a rally by the US dollar, which saw the pair drop as low as 0.8650.

This is followed by the  round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

0.9442  held firm as the pair showed some strength and closed in on this level for the second straight week. This line marked the high point of  the  pair in November, which saw the Aussie  go on a sharp slide and drop below the  0.89  line.

0.9368  was breached early in the week as the pair lost ground but recovered. It  remains in a  support role, but is a weak line and could face pressure early in the week.

0.9283 faced pressure during the week but has some breathing room as the pair bounced back towards the 0.94 level. The next line of support is at 0.9175.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March.

The  final support line for now  is  0.8893.  AUD/USD broke above this line in February, and has posted strong gains since then.

 

I am  neutral on AUD/USD.

The Aussie continues to  hold its own  against its US counterpart,  as the pair remains close to the 0.94 line.  With no economic releases scheduled out of Australia this week, key US numbers will have a significant impact on the movement of the pair, particularly housing and employment data.

 

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.