Talking Points
“¢ Aussie dollar looks set for more gains in the short term despite no signs of a pick-up in the Australian and Chinese economies.
“¢ AUDUSD is eyeing an important release in Australia during the next Asian session i.e. Employment Change report will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
“¢ Australian Retail Sales data released recently missed the mark, and registered an increase of 0.3%, compared to the forecast of 0.4%.
Key Highlights:
Australian Employment Report
Australian Retail Sales
Australian Employment Report
Looking ahead, there is a monster release scheduled in Australia, which has the potential to ignite swing moves in the Australian Dollar. The Employment Change report, which calculates the change in the number of employed people in Australia will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The forecast is slated for an increase of +5K in April 2015, compared with the last reading of +37.7K. The most important thing is that the market is also expecting an increase in the unemployment rate from 6.1% to 6.2%. Any major disappointment in jobs number might weigh on the Aussie Dollar in the short term.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
Recently, Australia saw a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which helped the AUDUSD pair to gain strength. There was a bearish trend line on the daily time frame, which was broken during the upside. One bullish sign is that the pair is now trading above the 100-day simple moving average, which might encourage buyers in the near term.
The pair is currently above 0.7950, and has managed to sustain above 100-day MA during the past session. However, there is a major hurdle around 38.2% Fib retracement of 0.8910-0.7529 where AUDUSD already struggled once before. A break above the same might ignite a short-term rally towards the 50% Fib retracement level.
Australian Retail Sales
Recently, the Australian Retail Sales report was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was of 0.4% increase in March 2015, compared to the preceding month rise of 0.7%. However, the outcome was softer, as the Australian Retail Sales managed to grow only by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms.
The report highlighted that the Food retailing rose 0.2%, Household goods retailing increased 0.5%, Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing grew by 0.8%, and food services gained 0.2% in March 2015.
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Post Submitted By – Tom Daly, Academy of Financial Trading
Website – http://www.academyft.com/
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