The Australian dollar rose over 200 pips against the greenback, ending the week at the 1.0470 level. There are four indicators being released in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Increased speculation about a Greek default and concerns about the eurozone did not affect the aussie, as traders were busy snapping up the Australian currency this week.
Updates: Australian PPI rose by only 0.3% on a quarterly level, half of the previous one. This didn’t stop the Aussie, which enjoyed the European optimism to jump and top out at around 1.0570 before dropping back under 1.05. Consumer prices remained unchanged in Australia in Q4. This increases the chances for a rate cut in Australia in February. Nevertheless, it was the fresh pessimism around Greece that sent the pair lower. The Aussie skyrocketed following the policy change in the US: Bernanke extended the pledge for low rates until late 2014 and didn’t rule out QE3. AUD/USD is close to 1.07.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- PPI: Monday, 00:30. This inflation index is published only once every quarter, making it very significant. The index has been falling since April, recording an increase of 0.6% in Q3. The forecast for Q4 is a smaller increase of only 0.4%. If the markets are correct in their forecast, this would be the third straight drop for the index, a trend which is bound to worry the markets.
- CB Leading Index: Monday,23:00. This composite index is based on seven important economic indicators. The index showed a nice increase of 0.6%, its best showing since April.
- MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This composite index is based on nine economic indicators. The November reading of a 0.3% drop was its worst since April 2009. Last month, however, the index bounced back, with an increase of 0.1%. Will the index continue to stay in positive territory?
- CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. Like the PPI, this main inflation release has been on a downward trend. The markets are calling for a minimal increase this month of only 0.2%. The trimmed CPI indicates a similar trend of lower little inflation.
* All the times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD opened the week at 1.0279. After dropping to a low of 1.0254, the pair climbed impressively, breaking resistance at the 1.04 level (discussed last week) on its way to reaching a high of 1.0489. The pair ended the week at 1.0469.
Technical levels from top to bottom:
We begin with the round number of 1.0733, which is strong resistance. This is followed by strong resistance at 1.0660. Next is the round number of 1.05, which served as support in May and June and is now in a resistance role. It could be tested on a further upswing by the pair. Below is 1.04, which had served as strong resistance since November 2011. The round number of 1.03 has been tested throughout January, and now finds itself providing weak support. Next, 1.0250 is also acting as weak support for the pair.
This is followed by 1.02, which is also providing weak support. Below, 1.0080 is providing support, protecting the all important parity level. Further, strong support is seen at the levels of 0.99 and 0.9850. Next, the line of 0.9660 is an important support level, which provided strong support throughout 2011. Finally, the round number of 0.95, which was breached only once in 2011, is providing strong support to the pair.
I am neutral on AUD/USD
The Aussie had a brilliant week against its US counterpart, with the pair now eyeing the important level of 1.05, a level not reached since October 2011. However, Australian employment figures were awful last month, and new motor vehicle sales were down, signalling that consumer confidence is weak. Will the aussie rally continue, or will traders once again flock to the US dollar as a safe haven?
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealanddollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.