AUD/USD: Trading the Australian jobs Mar 2013

The Australian Employment Change indicator, released monthly, is an important leading indicator which often has a significant impact on the markets. Employment figures are important as they provide a snapshot of the health of the economy. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 00::30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The releases of the Employment Change should be treated as a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change posted a gain of 10.4 thousand in February, well above the estimate of 5.8 thousand. The estimate for the March reading stands at 9.5 thousand. Will the indicator again beat the forecast?

Sentiment and Levels

AUD/USD has had a shaky 2013, and Australian data continues to be mixed. The US has posted stronger numbers, which should make the Aussie more attractive. However,  investors still seem reluctant to stray far from the safe-haven US dollar. Unless Australian data shows dramatic improvement, we can expect the Australian dollar to remain under pressure from its US cousin. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.0508, 1.0418, 1.0326, 1.0260,  1.0174 and 1.0080.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations:  6.5K to 12.5K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 12.6K to 15.6K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 15.6K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines can be broken.
4. Below expectations: 3.4K to 6.4K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 3.4K: A very poor reading will hurt confidence in the Aussie and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.

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