Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change estimates have been consistent in recent readings, but the actual releases have not. The indicator looked awful in December, posting a reading of -22.6 thousand. This was nowhere near the estimate of +10.3 thousand. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in January, with the estimate standing at +15.3 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The Aussie looked very sharp last week, jumping over 200 points against the retreating US dollar. Ironically, the Australian dollar gained ground after the RBA expressed its satisfaction that the currency was trading at lower levels. Will the RBA again try to “talk down” the Australian dollar? In the US, the Fed taper train is on the move, and on Tuesday Janet Yellen told Congress that the tapers will continue in 2014, provided that Fed forecasts regarding lower unemployment rates and higher inflation remain accurate. Additional tapers put pressure upward pressure on interest rates, which is bullish for the US dollar. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9368, 0.9283, 0.9180, 0.90, 0.8893 and 0.8728.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 12.0K to 18.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 18.1K to 22.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 22.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line could be broken.
- Below expectations: 8.0K to 11.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 8.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break below a second support level.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.
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