Australian Dollar Outlook – November 23-27
Posted on November 21, 2009 by Yohay
Filed Under AUD/USD Forecast | 9 Comments
Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: AUD/USD Forecast
The Aussie took a blow, with the greenback taking it out of range in the past week. The Aussie, backed by a strong economy and high interest rates, should fight back. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events that will shape the Australian dollar, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
This week doesn’t feature any big events such as employment numbers, which were excellent in Australia, but there still are 5 notable events. Let’s review them:
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Vehicle Sales are a good indicator for the economy. Cars are expensive products. Car sales in Australia rose in the past two months, and Australia’s strong economy is expected to show another growth in sales. Published early in the week, on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
- CB Leading Index: The Conference Board publishes this compound index, based on 7 economic indicators, some of them have already been released. The index rose in the past three months, with a strong rise of 1.% last month. A more modest rise is predicted this time. Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT.
- Ric Battellino talks: As the deputy governor of the RBA, Ric Battellino has a strong influence on the central banks’s hawkish policy. His wods can surely move the Aussie. He’ll be speaking in a conference in Melbourne on Tuesday at 22:20 GMT.
- Construction Work Done: This quarterly indicator has a strong impact, since it shows the real economic productivity in one of the largest sectors – housing. In the past two quarters, this indicator dropped, lagging behind other, good Australian figures. This time, it is expected to rise by 0.1%, following a drop in the same scale last month. Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
- Private Capital Expenditure: This is a more important quarterly release, since it shows how investors are reacting during a long period of time. Private Capital Expenditure has returned to growth last quarter, with a neat rise of 3.3%, a big surprise for economists. This time, a more modest rise of 1.1% is predicted. Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie reached a year-to-date high of 0.9405, but it has been all downhill, or down under from there. AUD/USD broke the two week range support line of 0.92, went very low and closed at 0.9144.
0.92 serves as a minor resistance line, marking the range. Above that, 0.94, the YTD high is the next resistance line. Note that some of the lines have changed since last week’s AUD/USD outlook.
Looking down, a strengthening greenback will meet strong support at 0.8950, a line that served as an important resistance and support line in recent months. Below that, the area of 0.85 also features strong support, as it served as a resistance line for long time in the summer.
My sentiment remain bullish on the Aussie. The strong Australian economy should stand strong also against growing fear. Just last week, employment figures were excellent in Australia. This is not the situation in the US.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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I think AUD/USD will continue going down. However, there’s a strong rejection of price below 0.9050, as can be seen on the daily chart. Therefore, I think there could still be some downward movement on Monday before a rebound would happen.
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[...] Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure is an important indicator for the Aussie. After a leap of 3.3% last month, it’s predicted to rise by 1.1% this time. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. [...]