A brief overview of AUD/USD:
January & February of 2015 has seen the Australian dollar touch lows of 0.7625 against the US Dollar which it had last breached way back in May of 2009.
Past two months has seen a range bound movement of approximately 400 pips between 0 8030 – 0.7630. Price action in the monthly chart shows a formation of spinning top on the 200 SMA. Which means buyers and sellers are undecided of the direction. If we move down to the daily time frame, price is in the middle of the 400 pip range mentioned above.
In the week ahead (March 2nd to 6th) Aussie Dollar has five important news releases.
Forecasted Previous
Monday, March 2nd: Building Approvals -1.8% -3.3%
Cash Rate & RBA Rate statement. 2.0% 2.25%
Tuesday, March 3rd: GDP 0.7% 0.3%
Wednesday, March 4th: Retail sales & 0.4% 0.2%
Trade Balance. -0.93B -0.44B
While all the above news releases are in the “highly important” category, the cash rate decision will have a huge impact on price if it is slashed from 2.25% to 2.00%. If that happens we can expect the down slide in AUD to continue with first target being 0.7625 and second target at 0.7250.
(Chart 2)
Forecast:
Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday will be volatile days for this pair and in case the cash rate decision remains unchanged, we may see price move up till 0.8030. The forecasted figures for retail sales and GDP are positive hence this might also push the Aussie Dollar up. On the upside price may go up to the upper end of the range, 0.8030 and then start moving down again. But if 0.8030 is broken convincingly on the upside then the next resistance is as high as 0.8650.
For those interested in shorting this pair, look to short closer to 0.8030.
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