Comments on: British Pound Outlook – June 29 – July 3 2009 http://www.forexcrunch.com/british-pound-outlook-june-29-july-3-2009/ Forex Trading with a Personal Touch Mon, 13 Feb 2012 03:45:15 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Christopher Glendinn http://www.forexcrunch.com/british-pound-outlook-june-29-july-3-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-6834 Christopher Glendinn Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:33:23 +0000 http://www.forexcrunch.com/?p=1374#comment-6834 I agree that the general mood for GBP/USD is bullish. However I like Ted feel that we will see a significant yet gradual fall. My reason for making this suggestion lie with the fact that the CIA Factbook suggests the external debt for the UK is at $ 10,450 billion. The external debt for the US is $14,580 billion with an economy six times larger. With this level of external debt I do not see how the UK economy can revitalise itself. Many are talking about a return to growth towards the end of the year which will mean interest rates will rise. A rise in interest rates will only exacerbate the problem with the UK and dampen any potential growth. In other words I see the UK entering a period of a 'lost generation'. There will be next to no growth as all surplice income is used to fund the interest payments due on the external debt. The Bank of England will have to maintain the Quantitative Easing by keeping interest rates artificially low and 'printing money'. All of this will lead to a decline in the value of cable. First it will be parity with the Euro followed by parity with the Dollar. A real pessimist would suggest parity with the Yen!!!!! I agree that the general mood for GBP/USD is bullish. However I like Ted feel that we will see a significant yet gradual fall. My reason for making this suggestion lie with the fact that the CIA Factbook suggests the external debt for the UK is at $ 10,450 billion. The external debt for the US is $14,580 billion with an economy six times larger.

With this level of external debt I do not see how the UK economy can revitalise itself. Many are talking about a return to growth towards the end of the year which will mean interest rates will rise. A rise in interest rates will only exacerbate the problem with the UK and dampen any potential growth.

In other words I see the UK entering a period of a 'lost generation'. There will be next to no growth as all surplice income is used to fund the interest payments due on the external debt. The Bank of England will have to maintain the Quantitative Easing by keeping interest rates artificially low and 'printing money'. All of this will lead to a decline in the value of cable. First it will be parity with the Euro followed by parity with the Dollar. A real pessimist would suggest parity with the Yen!!!!!

]]> By: Ted Wood http://www.forexcrunch.com/british-pound-outlook-june-29-july-3-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-6796 Ted Wood Sun, 28 Jun 2009 08:34:34 +0000 http://www.forexcrunch.com/?p=1374#comment-6796 Jun-26, 2009 Stuck in a Range, but Look Closer Well the GPD/USD has been stuck in a range. A range from 1.62 at a low to 1.66 at a high. Taking a closer look, it looks like a head and shoulders.. Actually it looks like a “W”. On June 19th then it reach 1.6560. Then it plunged to 1.62. close to the 23rd.. Then it rose to 1.66 to for the head. Next it fell to 1.6231 and rose again to 1,6560 on the 26th before the market closed on Friday. And then a slight turn downward before the day was over. (see GPD/USD 2 hour chart), Now the downward movement of the left shoulder should take place, probably on the European session on Monday. Most analyst are voicing that the GPD/USD is Bullish that is contray to my technical analysis. Will it take place. I do not know. According to all the courses I took .it will happen. I have seen things happen in the FOREX market recently that mystify me. So I will wait for the fundamental data and analyze the chart data before I move. Ted Wood Jun-26, 2009

Stuck in a Range, but Look Closer

Well the GPD/USD has been stuck in a range. A range from 1.62 at a low to 1.66 at a high.

Taking a closer look, it looks like a head and shoulders.. Actually it looks like a “W”.

On June 19th then it reach 1.6560. Then it plunged to 1.62. close to the 23rd.. Then it rose to 1.66 to for the head. Next it fell to 1.6231 and rose again to 1,6560 on the 26th before the market closed on Friday. And then a slight turn downward before the day was over. (see GPD/USD 2 hour chart),

Now the downward movement of the left shoulder should take place, probably on the European session on Monday.

Most analyst are voicing that the GPD/USD is Bullish that is contray to my technical analysis.

Will it take place. I do not know. According to all the courses I took .it will happen. I have seen things happen in the FOREX market recently that mystify me.

So I will wait for the fundamental data and analyze the chart data before I move.

Ted Wood

]]>