Home CAD Sell-Off Intact; Don’t Buy The JPY – Credit Agricole
Forex News Today: Daily Trading News

CAD Sell-Off Intact; Don’t Buy The JPY – Credit Agricole

The Canadian dollar continues suffering in the aftermath of the surprising BOC rate cut.  The pressure continues, says Credit Agricole.

The bank also analyzes the Japanese inflation data among other figures and does not see reasons to buy the Japanese yen.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

The CAD has been steadily depreciating since the BoC decided to ease monetary policy further on 21 January. As weak commodity price developments and unstable growth prospects keep inflation subject to downside risk, the central bank is unlikely to turn less dovish anytime soon. Capped central bank rate expectations and unstable risk sentiment should keep the CAD under pressure in the short- to medium-term.

It must be noted too, that according to IMM data speculative short positioning has not yet reached extremes. This suggests there is only limited position squaring-related downside risk.

In terms of data, today’s focus turns to the November GDP release. However, given its backward looking nature, we expect only limited currency impact.

In Asian hours the main focus was on inflation data in Japan. At 2.4% YoY (cons. 2.3%, prev. 2.4%) December CPI was released above expectations. This supported the JPY, mainly due to the notion that there is a falling probability of the BoJ turning more aggressive anew.

However, accounting for the sales tax hike in April 2014, core CPI grew by 0.5% YoY, which suggests that the BoJ remains far from escaping deflation sustainably. As such it can still not be excluded that the central bank will consider additional policy action by the end of the year.

Under such conditions the JPY should remain a sell on rallies, in particular against the USD, which should benefit from further rising Fed rate expectations.

For lots  more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus

By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting  Forex Crunch.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.