Category: Daily Look

All eyes on German business sentiment



Risk assets continue to edge higher with equity indices rebounding from recent sell offs and oil prices bouncing. The dollar rebound though just seems to have run out of steam as yesterday’s better UK retail sails saw GBPUSD recover most of its losses from earlier in the week and some half decent data from the Eurozone has kept EURUSD under pinned, with the latest German GDP data this morning also lending a hand as EURUSD trades at 1.1155. Even USDJPY has retraced having broken back above the 121.00 level on Wednesday, trading at 120.70 at the time of writing. Investors seem to be pausing for breath ahead of an extended week end with many on holiday next Monday.

For today eyes will be on more German data in the form of the IFO figures and Draghi is set to make a speech at the ECB forum at same time. This could cause some movement in the euro especially after the bungled talk from the ECB’s Coeuré as he announced plan to front load QE purchases over the summer. Listen out for further assurance of the QE program running until September 2016 but more importantly any clues as to inflation expectations. Then there’s US and Canadian inflation data with the US figure a key one to watch as anything higher than the expected -0.1% could lift the dollar.

Further reading:

Why EUR/USD Parity looks more real, and that GDP Now – ING

When Doves Cry

Euro awaits today’s  PMI data

Euro awaits today’s PMI data

The April FOMC meeting minutes last night did little to change perception on the Fed, namely that a June rate hike is off the agenda (but not totally ruled out) and that the economy does not seem strong enough yet for them to start their much anticipated tightening cycle. There was some dollar volatility around

EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD TA, Pivot Points – May 20 2015

EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD TA, Pivot Points – May 20 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1483 R2 1.1403 R1 1.1275 Pivot 1.1197 S1 1.1068 S2 1.0988 S3 1.086 EURUSD (1.1138): EURUSD continued its decline yesterday posting second day of losses after the bearish engulfing candlestick formed earlier this week on Monday. On the intraday charts, after 1.13575 failed to support prices EURUSD promptly declined to 1.117

Markets await FOMC minutes release

Markets await FOMC minutes release

With all the volatility elsewhere, the yen (and in particular USDJPY) has been notable for its stability. This is certainly the nature of yen in recent years, with long periods of going nowhere and shorter periods of strong trends. The GDP data released overnight have pushed USDJPY to the upper end of the recent range,

Markets await UK inflation data

Markets await UK inflation data

The single currency taking a bit of a beating early on, which has seen nearly one big figure taken off EURUSD. ECB Governing Council member Coeure has said that the ECB is to front-load QE purchases in May and June ahead of the summer break and this has pushed down bond yields (and hence the

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – May 19 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – May 19 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1559 R2 1.1505 R1 1.1408 Pivot 1.1351 S1 1.1257 S2 1.1200 S3 1.1106 EURUSD (1.1303): EURUSD formed a bearish engulfing candlestick yesterday on the daily charts just short of the 1.148 price level and is currently trading near 1.12845. This support level is crucial as a break below will see a

Quiet trading day

Quiet trading day

The car crash that represents FX developments in Q2 looks set to continue, with price action in EURUSD the most pertinent representation of how the price action in FX over recent weeks has defied the conventional wisdom. Friday saw a fairly substantial squeeze higher of over 1 big figure to make a new high of

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – May 15 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – May 15 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1558 R2 1.1501 R1 1.1454 Pivot 1.1395 S1 1.1349 S2 1.1291 S3 1.1245   EURUSD (1.1407): EURUSD is trading in a range this morning after making a high of 1.14438. The currency looks fairly supported near 1.13575 which marked a previous resistance level and one which is acting as support at

Sterling continues to climb

Sterling continues to climb

Thursday proved to be a steadier day for FX. The main standout was sterling where the push higher that was instigated in the wake of last week’s election results continued, cable briefly touching the 1.58 level before pulling-back to the 1.5750 area. This came despite the noises from the Bank of England earlier in the

Markets await US data

Markets await US data

So, once again the grand plan for the year (dollar strength) is close to tatters. This has strong echoes of last year, although at least things went to plan for the first ten weeks of the year. From being 11% up, the dollar is now only 3.5% up on the year (using the dollar index).