Category: Daily Look

USDCAD awaiting growth data



The last trading day of the month, which does bring risk of choppier than normal trading as institutional investors re-balance portfolios and funds adjust to fit around month end performance statistics. The standout yesterday was the weaker euro, given that the single currency has been holding up relatively well earlier in the week. Falling bond yields were playing a part, together with more negative headlines surrounding Greece from the IMF, although it’s no surprise to see that they remain reluctant to get involved in a third bailout. The 1.0893 level will act as continued support for EURUSD into month end, whilst EURJPY is currently struggling with the 136 level after yesterday’s push below. Japanese inflation data, released overnight, has come out better than expected on the headline rate, rising 0.4% vs. expected 0.3% YoY gain, whilst the currently favoured core measure excluding food (there are signs of a shift to an ex-energy measure) was steady at 0.1%. Overall, Japan is a long way off from achieving its 2% inflation goal announced more than 2 years ago. Back then, they threw everything at it, but the impact has been negligible.

Sticking with inflation, data for the Eurozone will be released at 09:00 GMT today, with headline rate seen steady at 0.2% YoY on the flash estimate. Although inflation has been slow to react, we have seen better indicators on activity and lending of late, suggesting some impact from both the anticipation and the implementation of the ECB’s QE program. As such, there appears to be greater potential for euro gains on a stronger than expected number (validating recovery hopes) vs. losses on the back of a weaker figure. Elsewhere, note that the CAD will be keeping a wary eye on the GDP numbers at 12:30 GMT as it continues to flirt with the 1.30 level vs. the greenback.

Further reading:

Heading towards a rate increase

Dollar boosted by Yellen’s statement

Heading towards a rate increase

Heading towards a rate increase

The impression given by the Fed’s post meeting statement last night suggests a central bank inching towards a rate increase, with inching being the operative word here because the changes to the wording were indeed very subtle. But there will be an even greater focus on the jobs numbers going forward, given that the Fed [&hellip

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 30 2015

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 30 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.117 R2 1.1127 R1 1.1054 Pivot 1.1010 S1 1.0937 S2 1.0893 S3 1.082   EURUSD (1.097): EURUSD posted a second straight day of losses as the currency failed to hold on to the gains near 1.1086. EURUSD was down trading back near the 1.097 region which marks a strong level of [&hellip

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 29 2015

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 29 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1175 R2 1.1136 R1 1.1097 Pivot 1.1059 S1 1.102 S2 1.0981 S3 1.0942   EURUSD (1.107): After the break out from the falling price channel EURUSD saw a brief retest back to the break out level and is currently posting bullish bars. The rally is likely to continue as the single [&hellip

Fed tightening in September?

Fed tightening in September?

The two-day FOMC meeting concludes today with the focus on the statement released at 18:00 GMT. There is no real anticipation that policy will be changed, but the focus will be on the extent to which the statement indicates a tightening to come and possibly as early as September. Bear in mind that when the [&hellip

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 28  2015

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 28 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1313 R2 1.1221 R1 1.1153 Pivot 1.106 S1 1.0993 S2 1.0899 S3 1.0832 EURUSD (1.107): With EURUSD closing on a bullish note yesterday, we expect further upside to prevail. Prices have broken the falling price channel and a possible retest of the break out is very likely towards 1.1047 through the [&hellip

FOMC Not Expected to Rock the Boat

FOMC Not Expected to Rock the Boat

The two day FOMC meeting starts today, but it seems a long shot to expect the Fed to signal an increase in rates at the subsequent meeting in September. Market pricing for a September move has decreased vs. where we were earlier in the month and the past few sessions have seen more doubt creep [&hellip

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 27 2015

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – July 27 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1077 R2 1.1036 R1 1.1008 Pivot 1.0966 S1 1.0937 S2 1.0895 S3 1.0866   EURUSD (1.10): EURUSD has maintained a strong short term bullish momentum after bounce off support near 1.0825. Price is currently struggling near resistance of 1.10. On the intraday charts, we see that this makes for a third [&hellip

Markets await the FOMC decision

Markets await the FOMC decision

We enter the last trading week of the month with a 2 day FOMC meeting to contend with. It’s unlikely that the Fed will strengthen its language so as to signal a September hike, but naturally the markets will scrutinise the statement for any signs that the Fed is shifting in that direction. The dollar [&hellip

Investors await the Fed’s rate hike

Chinese stocks have been recovering, with the Shanghai composite some 20% off its lows now, meanwhile European and US indices remain just below their record highs having shown reluctance to push on to new unchartered territory. Investors have been tested from all angles in recent months and now they are all too fully aware of [&hellip

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