Category: Daily Look

Another deadline for Greece



The US dollar struggled last week and market participants are increasingly challenging the ability of the greenback to continue the upward trend that it commenced last summer. The dollar index has appreciated over 20% in the past ten months and the recent weakness in US economic data is one of the main reasons for investors having second thoughts about the dollar bull market. Expectations for the first rate hike have been pushed back considerably with the number looking for June to mark the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2006 in the minority. A clear indication of the dollar’s recent struggle is the recovery of EURUSD which is trading at 1.0800 at the time of writing, as this move higher by the euro has come in the face of mounting tensions between Greece and its creditors. Chances of a Grexit have been steadily growing, yet the euro has held its ground. Even sterling has burst higher against the dollar recapturing the 1.5000 level last week, this in the face of growing uncertainty over the outcome of the General Election. GBPUSD trades at 1.4950 this morning.

The focus will remain on Greece this week ahead of yet another deadline this Friday for the seemingly never ending negotiations. For today there’s little in the way of major economic data releases but attention should be given to a speech from the RBA Governor later, in particular to see what attention he gives to the recent rebound in AUDUSD.

Further reading:

The Confetti Lady that moved Draghi but not Markets – Market Movers #46

USD Index, EUR/USD: Trending Or Turning? – Goldman Sachs

EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD Pivot Points, TA – Apr. 20 2015

EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD Pivot Points, TA – Apr. 20 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1036 R2 1.0927 R1 1.0843 Pivot 1.0733 S1 1.065 S2 1.0539 S3 1.0457   EURUSD made a new monthly high near 1.08505 levels last week but has failed to follow through on this. Current price action is hovering nera the 1.0871 levels and failure to close higher will see a decline

Greece Between Scylla and Charybdis

Greece Between Scylla and Charybdis

In the ancient epic poem known as the Odyssey, the Greek king Odysseus was forced to navigate a narrow strait between the six-headed sea monster named Scylla, and a ship-eating whirlpool called Charybdis. As it was impossible to avoid both, he chose to confront Scylla, losing a number of his best sailors in the battle

This week in the markets: The dollar is the biggest loser

This week in the markets: The dollar is the biggest loser

The story for most of this week was one of the dollar’s weakness. After the soft jobs data last week, US data continued to disappoint throughout last week. It started with US retail sales which printed weaker than expected. Purchases in March rose 0.9% against expectations for 1.1%, while core sales increased by 0.4% vs.

Markets await Inflation figures

Markets await Inflation figures

The euro has held up very strongly in the face of mounting concerns that Greece will soon have to leave the Eurozone. The IMF have been very vocal in their concerns that Greece is on the cusp of either being late with one of its up and coming repayments or missing it altogether, with the

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – Apr. 17 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – Apr. 17 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1036 R2 1.0927 R1 1.0843 Pivot 1.0733 S1 1.065 S2 1.0539 S3 1.0457   EURUSD made a fresh weekly high towards 1.08 levels late yesterday. This price action is indicative of a possible correction to the downside, with the first test coming in at support at 1.0693, which was only briefly

Australian jobs data boosts Aussie

Australian jobs data boosts Aussie

The big stand out from last night was the Aussie which has spiked on the back of a much unexpected decline in unemployment. AUDUSD is now back in the mid 0.7700 area marking a two week high as the Australian economy created more than double the amount of jobs expected in March and February’s rise

Stay Structurally Bullish On USD, Stay Patient – Credit Suisse

Stay Structurally Bullish On USD, Stay Patient – Credit Suisse

“Despite the plethora of USD negative headlines and data in recent weeks – including the more dovish FOMC March meeting minutes and softer US payrolls, ISM and retail sales releases – the USD has proven resilient. We think this is a reminder of the fact that the USD surge over the past few months was

All eyes on ECB meeting

All eyes on ECB meeting

Chinese GDP data overnight has fallen to its lowest level for six years and whilst it is in line with expectations a little risk aversion has set into the markets overnight and this morning. It is the industrial production and retail sales numbers that have worried investors causing Asian stocks to decline during their session

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – Apr. 15 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – Apr. 15 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.0905 R2 1.0806 R1 1.0729 Pivot 1.0630 S1 1.0553 S2 1.0454 S3 1.0377   EURUSD broke out from the falling median line and managed to rally above the previous short term resistance at 1.0591 level to briefly test 1.0634. Price action reversed from this level and is now trading just a