Category: Daily Look

Markets less sure about September rate hike



FX and other markets seem to have become less excited by the Fed in the past two weeks or so. The polls of institutions still show expectations positioned for a Fed hike next month, but the pricing in markets has become less convinced and this can also be seen in the latest dollar price action. The latest oil price developments have been playing a part and feeding into forward indicators of inflation. In the background is the global environment, which has become a more significant factor for the Fed in the past couple of years. We could get more on this front this evening from the latest Fed minutes for the end of July meeting. There were only subtle changes to the statement at that time, but at the margin, they did strengthen the perception that the Fed were gearing up for easing rates. Any dollar up-move on the release of minutes today is likely to be short-lived, given the subsequent developments that have largely undermined the easing case. Ahead of the Fed minutes this evening will be CPI data in the US, with a nudge higher from 0.1% to 0.2% on the headline rate, with core inflation seen steady at 1.8%.

As we mentioned yesterday, we’ve seen a decline in volatility over recent weeks and that has continued overnight, with relatively tight ranges on the majors. Beyond the majors, emerging market currencies continue to face pressure, especially those reliant on overseas capital who are seen as having a continued tough time as the Fed tightens policy. The South African rand has been under particular pressure in this regard, close to breaking the 13.00 level on USDZAR.

Further reading:

Will the FOMC Minutes be the catalyst for a USD/JPY move higher?

Chinese investors remain edgy

Will the FOMC Minutes be the catalyst for a USD/JPY move higher?

Will the FOMC Minutes be the catalyst for a USD/JPY move higher?

Wilson Leung, Director, Trendsetter FX, joined Tip TV to offer the technical outlook for USD/JPY and GBP/USD. USD/JPY – Will the dollar bulls return? Leung believes that the US FOMC Minutes to be released ahead might be the catalyst dollar bulls await. He further maintains a buy on dips approach on the pair, suggesting to [&hellip

Oil prices continue to take hits from multi-factor market pressures, S&P 500 to break lower?

Oil prices continue to take hits from multi-factor market pressures, S&P 500 to break lower?

With crude oil’s growing supply-side dominance, and US equities continuing on a near-historical run, Darren Sinden – Market Commentator for Admiral Markets – joined Zak Mir and James Hughes in the Tip TV studio to discuss if either of these are coming to an end. Oil and fracking playing a dangerous game of chicken West [&hellip

GBPUSD heads for 1.5740; EURAUD looks higher – Elliott Wave Analysis

GBPUSD heads for 1.5740; EURAUD looks higher – Elliott Wave Analysis

GBPUSD is moving higher in a sharp manner after UK CPI came out above expectations. On cable we see a completed flat correction at 1.5560 so new highs should follow as the current upward reaction looks impulsive. We see room for a rally up to around 1.5720-1.5740 area for wave C.  GBPUSD 1h Elliott Wave [&hellip

Markets await UK inflation data

Markets await UK inflation data

The focus for sterling today will be with the inflation data released at 08:30 GMT. The debate regarding the timing of the first interest rate increase in the UK appears to be gathering strength, even though on balance expectations remains grounded in 2016. We’ve had one member of the MPC voting for higher rates and [&hellip

The Fed look to calm rate expectations, the successes of China’s currency plan, and have we heard the last from Greece?

The Fed look to calm rate expectations, the successes of China’s currency plan, and have we heard the last from Greece?

In anticipation for the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and focus remaining on September’s NFP numbers, Marcus Ashworth – Head of fixed income at Espirito Santo Investment Bank – joins Tip TV CEO, Nick Batsford, to discuss what implications this will have for the Federal Reserve’s proposed rate hike, as well as China’s ongoing plans to [&hellip

A Calm day

A Calm day

Cable finds itself around 20 pips higher at the European open on the back of comments from another member of the Bank of England’s MPC outlining the risks of leaving an interest rate rise too late. The comments were in a Telegraph newspaper article, which also outlined the risks of moving too early, but the [&hellip

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – August 14 2015

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – August 14 2015

EURUSDUpdateEURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1306 R2 1.1245 R1 1.1197 Pivot 1.1137 S1 1.1089 S2 1.1029 S3 1.098   EURUSD (1.1): EURUSD has been trading around the resistance level of 1.117 and 1.1135 for most of yesterday. On the daily charts, price action shows a pending test of support at the newly broken lower resistance at [&hellip

Chinese yuan stabilizes

Chinese yuan stabilizes

The stabilization seen on the Chinese yuan overnight should make for a more comfortable end to the week. The fix on USDCNY was marginally lower which allowed for a stabilization of the onshore rate and fall in the offshore rate. This also follows on from the comments seen from the PBOC yesterday, playing down the [&hellip

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – August 13 2015

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – August 13 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1428 R2 1.1320 R1 1.1239 Pivot 1.1131 S1 1.1048 S2 1.0941 S3 1.0859   EURUSD (1.1): EURUSD has finally reached the targeted resistance area between 1.117 and 1.11354. We expect to see a possibility of a decline to establish support somewhere close to 1.10 levels ahead of a continued rally to [&hellip

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