Category: Daily Look

Ultimatum to Greece



It looks like Greece has finally been given an ultimatum by its creditors in a last ditch attempt to save the country from leaving the Eurozone. A deal must be presented by Thursday with the deadline of Sunday to thrash out the details and agree on a new bailout. But given the Greek government’s approach to negotiations since it came to power in January, anything can happen in that time. The ECB has made it clear that their support for Greek banks will end next week and the Eurogroup has “a Grexit scenario prepared in detail” if a deal is not struck. The odds of a new deal being agreed are heavily stacked against the optimists, if indeed there are any optimists left. We can expect volatility to remain high going into the weekend and certainly next week if Grexit ensues.

Away from Greece today’s other important market events include the UK’s emergency budget and this evening’s FOMC minutes. Both could move the markets, in the case of the budget scrutiny will be given on the OBR’s growth forecasts given the deterioration of the situation in the Eurozone and proposed welfare cuts, which in turn could give insight into when that first rate hike from the Bank of England will come. The FOMC minutes have greater potential to move the dollar where investors will want to see how improved inflation prospects and wage growth might translate into greater potential for a September rate hike, but given the dovish bias to growth forecasts and external threats to the US economy that remain we feel September is too early for the Fed to make its first move.

Further reading:

ECB has its fingers on the Grexit trigger – will it pull it?

EUR/USD hugs 1.10 amid final Greek deadline on Sunday – what you need to know

Waiting for a Greek proposal

Waiting for a Greek proposal

Capital controls are unlikely to be lifted for some time unless a deal can be agreed upon in the next day or so. The ECB has tightened up collateral rules for Greek banks to access its ELA and Merkel and Hollande made it clear yesterday that it is now up to Greece to come forward [&hellip

EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD Pivot Points, TA – July 7 2015

EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD Pivot Points, TA – July 7 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1235 R2 1.1165 R1 1.1109 Pivot 1.1039 S1 1.0983 S2 1.0913 S3 1.0858 EURUSD (1.103): EURUSD closed on a bullish note yesterday despite opening weak. Daily charts price action still remains range bound within last week’s high and low and therefore we keep our options open on the bias until there [&hellip

Varoufakis quits

Varoufakis quits

Yet another twist and turn in the Greek saga as finance minister Varoufakis steps down to pave the way for smoother negotiations to take place between Greece and its creditors. The comprehensive No vote at the week end gives Tsipras a strong mandate so get back around the table and discuss new bailout terms, even [&hellip

EUR/USD: Levels To Watch Into Greek Referendum – Citi

EUR/USD: Levels To Watch Into Greek Referendum – Citi

Tomorrow is #Greferendum day: voters in the debt stricken country decide if they approve or reject the creditors’ proposal. This will have a significant impact on the euro. Here are the levels to watch according to the team at Citi: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: “We doubt that sufficient progress may be achieved in the next few [&hellip

USD Seems Weaker – Looking At EURUSD & NZDUSD – Elliott Wave Analysis

USD Seems Weaker – Looking At EURUSD & NZDUSD – Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD is still trading in a wide range. We are tracking a possible triangle in wave 4 in a larger degree where we could be in the last stages of completion with a wave E on track now. For now and as long as we hold on to the unbroken wave C highs we will [&hellip

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – July 3 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA – July 3 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1214 R2 1.1167 R1 1.1124 Pivot 1.1077 S1 1.1035 S2 1.0988 S3 1.0945 EURUSD (1.109): EURUSD continues to trade within Monday’s range and we expect this range to be broken next week (after the Greece referendum outcome). On the intraday charts, there is a potential bear flag pattern that is taking [&hellip

The calm before the storm

The calm before the storm

With the US Thanksgiving holiday and the impending Greek referendum on Sunday, today is likely to be a day of relative subdued trading in FX markets and elsewhere. Yesterday’s US employment report set the tone for a softer dollar. Even though the unemployment rate moved lower and down to 5.3%, the combination of a softer [&hellip

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Technical Analysis, Pivot Points – July 2 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Technical Analysis, Pivot Points – July 2 2015

EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.1265 R2 1.1219 R1 1.1135 Pivot 1.1088 S1 1.1004 S2 1.0957 S3 1.0874 EURUSD (1.106): EURUSD saw a bearish close yesterday but the range remained within Monday’s high and low. As noted yesterday, this range play could be seen until Thursday’s NFP release. On the H4 charts, price attempted to break [&hellip

Investors Await Greek Referendum

Investors Await Greek Referendum

Good morning. Twenty fours ago, it appeared that Greek Prime Minister Tsipras had finally capitulated with a conciliatory letter to EU creditors asking for a new bailout that would accept many of their terms. North American equities took the baton from Europe and finished the day a sea of green, optimistic a deal was imminent. [&hellip

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