Category: Other Forex Stuff
Still a long haul for US employment
Having been the main disappointment for most of the US recovery, the US jobs numbers have mostly surprised to the upside in recent months, with five of the past six releases coming out stronger than expected on the headline number. This is certainly a positive development that has helped to underpin some of the recent
The allure of a safe-haven (Video)
One of the more remarkable developments during January was the relatively strong performance of the traditional safe-haven currencies, principally the yen and Swiss franc. We wrote about this during the course of last month, but the Swissie is particularly under the spotlight, given the proximity of EUR/CHF to the 1.20 floor imposed by the SNB
Dollar still sliding on more Fed QE
After a relatively encouraging first month of the New Year, the dollar index has fallen by 3% since mid-January, in part due to the Fed’s surprising endorsement of more quantitative easing. Last Friday’s GDP numbers were remarkably weak, confirming the prognosis of a number of Fed officials who feel that the economy could do with
Back on the slippery slope
After reaching its highest level since mid-December, euro-bulls beat a hasty retreat during the London trading session yesterday. There were numerous issues to worry about, including the CDU’s decision to scupper Angela Merkel’s idea that the EFSF and ESM could run in parallel, the German proposal to appoint an EU budget commissioner to veto tax
Creeping progress in the US
Friday’s GDP numbers confirmed that the US economy ended last year on a decent footing (up 2.8% on annualised basis), even though growth fell short of expectations. However, the pattern of growth was perhaps a little more concerning. Inventory accumulation accounted for nearly three-quarters of the increase in output. Meanwhile, government consumption took nearly 1%
The unbearable lightness of being
Europe is still stumbling through a sovereign debt crisis, Greece is close to default, Portugal is in dire need of more cash yet, risk appetite so far this year has been a minor revelation. Some major equity markets such as the DAX and the Hang Seng are up more than 10%; BRIC equities are also
Bernanke hints at QE to come (Video)
In a surprisingly (but also refreshingly) candid admission, Fed Chairman Bernanke declared last night that another round of quantitative easing may well be necessary to alleviate “high and persistent unemployment in an underperforming economy”. With inflation still low and Europe a potential drag on the economy, the Fed Chairman clearly feels that more asset purchases
The perils of misplaced optimism
Markets have taken some comfort from the better-than-expected run of data seen in the early part of the year, the most recent being yesterday’s provisional PMI data in Europe. But are we heading for a repeat of the last two years? Both data sets saw a strong tendency for upside surprises in the early part,
The euro gets carried away
Has the euro become the new carry currency of choice? That’s the suggestion being thrown around on the back of the performance seen so far this year, together with the injection of 3-yr funds last month and the talk of anything up to EUR 1trln or more at the next 3-yr tender in February. We
A full day’s work ahead of euro FinMins
Today’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels has a very full agenda to consider. There is the latest draft of the fiscal compact to discuss (see below), a review of the progress made in the Greek debt talks, and a conversation on a draft for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The latter apparently includes