USD/CHF Outlook – August 1-5
The ultimate safe haven currency isn’t retreating, and fresh records were seen in the past week. The upcoming week consists of key surveys and inflation numbers. Here’s an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
The European debt crisis is fully back, after a short break. This had a strong effect on EUR/CHF, and also on USD/CHF. In the US, the debt ceiling issues continued to hit the greenback. The Swissy was the safest haven once again.
USD/CHF daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- SVME PMI: Monday, 7:30. The highly regarded SLVE interviews around 200 purchasing managers for this PMI. Last month, it disappointed as it made a big drop from 59.2 points to 53.4, signalling a significant slowdown in the Swiss economy, but still in growth territory (above 50). A rise is expected now.
- Retail Sales: Tuesday, 7:15. This all important consumer indicator plunged last month by 4.1%. It is important to note that this huge disappointment follows a leap of 7.8% in the previous month. A modest rise is expected now.
- CPI: Friday, 7:15. The high level of the Swiss franc pushed the consumer price index lower ground last month, a drop of 0.2%. Gien the stability in commodity prices and the additional strength of the currency, another drop is likely now.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Dollar/Swiss traded in a narrow range during most of the week, just above the round number of 0.80 (discussed last week). It then made a spectacular drop, free falling and closing just above 0.7850.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.8625 was the previous trough and now works as minor resistance, switching positions from around one month ago. The older all-time low of 0.8553 remains very important and can be challenged quite soon.
The next line is previous all time low of 0.8463 which was more of a pivotal line, where the pair struggled, and is now a serious resistance line if the pair marches higher. Yet another all-time low of around 0.8330 is stronger now, after providing a cushion for yet another week.
The already previous all time low 0.8275 proved to be a strong line of resistance a few weeks ago, after being a record low. It is followed by 0.82, which managed to cap a recovery attempt recently, and worked as a pivotal line . This round number is minor now.
0.8130 is a minor line below. We’ve seen it work perfectly well as support, serving as the bottom border of the range before the last drop. The previous record low of 0.8075 is now resistance, quite a minor one.
The round number of 0.80 continues to be of high importance. After it was lost, it was lost for the pair. Minor resistance is at 0.7925, a place of hesitation after the break.
0.7850 is support, although very close. In uncharted territory, 0.7775 is the next line of support, followed by 0.77.
I am neutral on USD/CHF.
The ultimate safe haven currency’s strength is problematic for the Swiss economy, yet no intervention is likely now. The Swissy depends on the European debt crisis, as well as on the debt ceiling issues in the US. A positive resolution in the US will send the pair much higher, while more dragging or, needless to say, a catastrophic outcome, will send it much much lower, especially as the Spanish problems weigh on the euro and push the Swissy higher as well.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
