Category: US Dollar Forecast

Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 21-25



The pound and the dollar emerged as winners in a week that saw the euro and the yen retreat. US housing data, the rate decision in New Zealand, German business sentiment, US Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims are the main highlights on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the market-movers for this week.

The US economy emerged from the cold winter registering gains in retail sales and manufacturing activity as well as continuous improvement in the labor market. . The Philly Fed Index exceeded expectations in April, providing more evidence of a spring bounce. Overall, the US economy is steadily advancing. In the euro’zone, Mario Draghi managed to send the euro down in a Sunday gap, and the common currency never recovered. GBP enjoyed a sharp drop in the UK unemployment rate to reach new multi year highs. The kiwi stayed behind after weak inflation figures and the loonie took the other direction on positive ones

Updates:
  1. US Existing Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. existing home sales declined slightly in February to a 19 month-low reaching an annual rate of 4.60 million units, following 4.62 million in January. A combination of cold weather and dwindling inventory of homes for sake, discouraged potential buyers. Economists expected a higher figure of 4.65 million. However, as the cold winter is over, analysts believe the pace of sales will accelerate this time. U.S. home sales are expected to rise to 4.57 million.
  2. Chinese: HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:45. The independent purchasing managers’ index is considered one of the most reliable gauges for the Chinese economy, the world’s no. 2 economy. After a disappointing drop to 48 points, a small rise to 48.4 is expected. Note that this is below the 50 point mark separating growth and contraction.
  3. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. The number of transactions for buying new U.S. homes in February declined to 440,000 (annualized) due to the unusually cold winter. Sales of new homes declined 3.3% from a revised rate of 455,000 in January. Nevertheless, economists forecast a pick-up in sales this spring. A further improvement in the US job market and a better consumer confidence will help boost numbers in March. New home sales are expected to reach 455,000.
  4. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market forecast. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement that inflation pressures have increased and expected to continue doing so over the next two years. Raising rates was important to keep inflation under control. Wheeler left the door open for further rate hikes within the next two years. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 3%. Recent weak inflation data suggests that the RBNZ may become somewhat more dovish.
  5. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 8:00. German business sentiment declined for the first time in five months in March reaching 110.7 from 111.3 in February, amid the Russian- Ukraine conflict. Businesses are worried that this ongoing crisis might affect Germany’s economic recovery since Germany receives more than a third of its gas and oil from Russia. In case of conflict escalation, many German firms are at danger.  German business sentiment  is expected to edge down to110.5.
  6. Mario Draghi speaks: Thursday, 9:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at a conference in Amsterdam. He may comment on the low inflation in the Eurozone. Market volatility is expected. We have seen his heavy hand on the euro and we might see this happen again.
  7. US Core Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods regained strength in February with a 2.2% increase following a 1.3% decline in the previous month. Meantime, Core durable goods orders increased by 0.2% after posting a 0.9% rise in January, falling below expectations of a 0.3% rise. Economic growth in the first quarter is expected to be weaker than the fourth quarter’s annualized 2.4% rise, due to the cold weather. Orders for transportation equipment increased 6.9% while transportation orders had declined 6.2% in January. Durable goods orders are expected to climb 2.1%, while Core durable goods orders are expected to edge up 0.6%.
  8.  US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new jobless claims registered last week remained low at 304,000, near their pre-recession levels, following 302,000 posted in the previous week. Manufacturing activity has accelerated in April, indicating growth momentum after the cold winter. Economists forecasted jobless claims to reach 315,000. The four-week moving average for new claims, dropped to its lowest level since October 2007 with a 312,000 claims. Jobless claims are expected to increase by 5,000 to 309,000.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

More: See the 5 most predictable currency pairs.

Further reading:

Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 14-18

Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 14-18

The US dollar had a terrible week, falling across the board. Can it stabilize now, or will the sell off continue? US retail sales, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US Inflation data, Janet Yellen and US Haruhiko Kuroda speeches, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are the highlights of this week. Here is an

Forex Weekly Outlook April 7-11

Forex Weekly Outlook April 7-11

The US dollar gained against most currencies and the euro was on the back foot in a busy week. And now, rate decisions in Japan and the UK, Australian employment data and the FOMC meeting minutes of Yellen’s first decision are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers ahead.

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 31-Apr 4

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 31-Apr 4

The US dollar gained against the euro and the yen, but lost ground against the other currencies. the ECB rate decision, Janet Yellen’s speech, important employment data culminating in the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls and the rate decision in the Eurozone are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main events awaiting

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 24-28

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 24-28

The US dollar had a successful week, rising against most currencies thanks to a hawkish move from the Federal Reserve. German Ifo Business Climate, Inflation data in the UK, US consumer sentiment and housing data as well as jobless claims are the highlight events . Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 17-21

Forex Weekly Outlook March 17-21

The yen is the winner of a turbulent trading week which saw new highs for the euro and the kiwi. The first rate decision by Janet Yellen is the main event. Among other highlights are the German Economic Sentiment, speeches by heads of central banks, UK employment data, as well as US employment and housing

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 10-14

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 10-14

The US dollar and the Japanese yen were sold off as the market mood improved. Will we see more falls? Rate decisions in Japan and New Zealand, US employment and retail figures as well as PPI and Consumer confidence are the major events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this

Forex Weekly Outlook March 3-7

Forex Weekly Outlook March 3-7

The US dollar was generally on the back foot, with the euro emerging as the big winner. The all important ECB rate decision is one of four rate decisions and the Non-Farm Payrolls with their build up also stand out in a very busy week. These are the highlights of this week. Here is an

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 24-28

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 24-28

Weaker than expected data was reported almost everywhere. After suffering losses, can the US dollar emerge as a winner? Euro-zone inflation, Us consumer confidence, Housing data, Unemployment Claims and GDP data from the US, UK and Canada are among the major events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week.

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 17-21

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 17-21

The US dollar had a rough week, suffering from weak data. A rate decision in Japan, German business sentiment surveys, UK job data, US housing and employment data as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes are the major events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market movers for this week. Janet