The RBA surprised markets by seemingly acknowledging the fall of AUD and not expressing too much worry.
Is it a real game changer? The team at ANZ weighs in:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
The RBA’s post meeting statement changed its language in reference to the AUD, but that doesn’t mark a turning point for the currency, says Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).
“We remain more focused on the Bank’s language regarding the amount of spare capacity in the economy, and this still suggests there is no near term shift in tone on the horizon,” ANZ adds.
“While this slight tonal shift may support the AUD marginally against other commodity currencies, concerns surrounding the outlook for iron ore, the path of the USD, and evidence of waning risk appetite in other markets will be more important drivers of the AUD’s direction,” ANZ argues.
“This means that the statement, together with the better data pulse of late, should ensure that the AUD outperforms against commodity crosses. However, the risks to a long AUD position against traditional funding currencies like the USD or the JPY are still tilted to the downside,” ANZ projects.
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