EUR/USD Outlook – October 12-16 2009
Posted on October 11, 2009 by Yohay
Filed Under EUR/USD Forecast | 12 Comments
EUR/USD had a good week, regaining the losses of the previous week, and closing higher up its trading range. This week’s ZEW Economic Sentiment, inflation figures and other data will impact EUR/USD. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in the Euro-zone, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
For the latest outlook, check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.
EUR/USD forex chart with support and resistance lines. Click to enlarge:
Absolutely no surprises in the rate decision last week kept the Euro in the trading range. Let’s see the menu for this week:
- German WPI: This price index measures goods sold by wholesales. Though it isn’t a major release, it precedes the CPI release by a few days. In addition, it’s the only release on Monday, standing out in a light calendar. German WPI surprised by rising by 0.7% last month. It’s now expected to rise in a moderate pace of 0.2%.
- French CPI: Europe’s second largest economy has seen prices go up and down in previous months, without a clear direction. After a rise of 0.5%, French CPI is expected to fall by 0.1% this time. Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT, just before more important releases.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment: The ZEW institute from Germany publishes this highly regarded survey of investors and analysts. Its German indicator is considered more precise than the all-European figure. Both are published at the same time – Tuesday at 9:00 GMT.The German sentiment has been positive since April, reach a high score of 57.7 last month. It’s expected to edge up to 58.8 this month. The all-European number is slightly better, at 59.6, and is expected to pass the 60 mark this time.
- Industrial Production: After falling in the last two months, Europe’s industrial production is expected to rise neatly – 0.9% this time. Expectations are built on the German and French releases that were already made earlier. Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT.
- ECB Monthly Bulletin: This collection of statistical data is what ECB policymakers see when they make decisions. These reports also contain analysis for future economic conditions and the future policy. Released on Thursday at 8:00 GMT.
- CPI: Despite being released after the German and French CPI releases, this inflation number is still very important and does surprise economists occasionally. Europe’s deflation is no secret: CPI fell in the last three months. Last month’s 0.2% fall (annually adjusted) is predicted to be followed by a 0.3% drop this time. A rate hike won’t be seen soon. Core CPI is positive, but prices are hardly rising. Core CPI is expected to edge down from 1.3% to 1.2% this time. Released on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.
- Jean-Claude Trichet speaks: ECB President moved the markets just last week, and he’ll get a chance to do that again, in a speech called “Lessons from the Crisis”. He’ll start talking on Thursday at 11:25 GMT.
- Trade Balance: Similar to previous data, also the all-European trade balance is released after the German and French releases. Yet again, this number was very surprising last time – a surplus of 6.8 billion was reported, more than 5 times the expectations. This time, economists predict a rise to 7.9 billion.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Euro made a nice and steady rise during the week. It climbed up to 1.4764, easily breaking the minor resistance line of 1.4720 from last week’s EUR/USD Outlook. It then slipped back down before climbing as high as 1.4817. EUR/USD finally closed at 1.4731.
EUR/USD is closing a month of range trading, since it broke the 1.4444 long-standing resistance line. 1.4444 continues to be the strong support line of this range. Below that, support is found at 1.42.
Looking up, I’ve modified the resistance next resistance line to be 1.4850, which is the peak of this current range. This is a minor resistance line at the moment. Above that, 1.4908 looks stronger.
I continue to be slightly bullish on the Euro, which enjoys a solid recovery. Another week of range trading is quite possible before making another move up.
Like last week, I bring a few excellent technical analyses for this popular pair:
- Moihammed Isah discusses the upside bias of EUR/USD and looks at the 1.4844 level.
- Casey Stubbs writes about the caution needed before the next bullish move.
Further reading in Forex Crunch:
- For a broad view of the major events this week, read the Forex Weekly Outlook.
- For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD Outlook.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD Outlook.
- For the Canadian dollar, read the USD/CAD Outlook.
Tags: CPI,Deflation,ECB,ECB Monthly Bulletin,EUR/USD,EUR/USD Technical Analysis,Forex Chart,forex graph,forex trading,Industrial Production,Inflation,Jean-Claude Trichet,resistance line,support line,Technical Analysis,trade balance,WPI,ZEW Economic Sentiment
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[...] For the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook. [...]
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thank u so much, for your very very usefull outlooks,and analysis, i look them every days and find them so usefull
Thank you very much behnam!
Thank you very much for your free Forex outlooks and updated news. I have nothing but praise for your site. Thank you again.
[...] EUR/USD remains range-bound, now trading at 1.4773. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook. [...]
[...] In Europe, Industrial Production is predicted to rise by 0.9%, after falling 0.3% last time. EUR/USD now trades above previous peaks, at 1.4895. Casey Stubbs sees this as a break, and looks at 1.5000 as the next resistance. I think the break is somewhat hesitant. More on the Euro in the EUR/USD Forecast. [...]
[...] further reading: check out the EUR/USD Weekly Forecast. Enjoyed the post? You may want to subscribe to the RSS feed. Tags: Casey [...]
[...] Jean-Claude Trichet will be speaking today, and he usually has an ability to move the markets. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Forecast. [...]
[...] I’m deleting the 1.4908 line from last week’s EUR/USD Outlook. EUR/USD erased it during the second part of the week. 1.4844 turns from a resistance line to a [...]