EUR/USD Forecast Aug. 3-7

EUR/USD  posted strong gains early in the week, but was unable to consolidate and closed the week unchanged, at 1.0982. This week’s highlights are the Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Flash PMIs: Manufacturing PMIs will be published on Monday, while Service PMIs will follow on Wednesday.  Spanish Manufacturing PMI is expected to remains around 54 points, with the  French and  German indicators  expected  slightly above the 50 line, which separates contraction from separation. The forecasts for the Services PMIs are higher, with  the Spanish indicator expected to  dip  to 55.6 and the  French indicator  is expected to drop to 54.1  points.  The forecast is  for  German Services PMI  is expected to remain steady at 53.7 points.
2. Spanish Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 7:00. Spanish job numbers traditionally improve in the summer tourist season, and the June reading was strong, with a decline of 94.7 thousand. The estimate for the July reading stands at -45.6 thousand.
3. PPI: Tuesday, 9:00. Eurozone inflation levels remain very low, and PPI posted a flat rate of 0.0% in the May release. Little change is expected in the June report.
4. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 9:00. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The indicator slipped to 0.1% in May, compared to 0.7% a month earlier. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.1% in the June release.
5. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 6:00. The indicator had a dismal May,  coming in at -0.2%.  This  marked the first decline in three months. The markets are expecting much better news in June, with an estimate of +0.4%.
6. Retail PMI: Thursday, 8:10. Retail PMI is showing some signs of expansion, posting two consecutive readings above the 50-point line. The June reading came in at 50.4 points.
7. German Industrial Production: Friday, 6:00. The largest economy in the Eurozone did not post strong manufacturing data in May, with a reading of 0.0%, compared to +0.9% in  April. The forecast  for  the June report stands at +0.3%.
8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45.  French Industrial Production improved to 0.4% in May, after two straight declines. Little change is expected in the June release, with an estimate of 0.3%.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD opened at 1.0971 and quickly climbed to a high  of 1.1129. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 1.0893, as  support  held firm at 1.0865  (mentioned last week). The pair recovered late in the week and closed at 1.0983.

Live chart of EUR/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”EURUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The round level of 1.15  is an important symbolic line  and  has also worked as support in the past. 1.1450 capped the pair during February’s  recovery attempts and also during May.  Next, the historic line of 1.1373 (from November 2003), which  still  has a role as resistance. 1.1290, which was a peak in April and support in February is significant resistance.

1.1190, just below the round number of 1.12, proved its strength as a double top in June 2015. It is followed by a low seen in  January  of 1.1113, which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR.

1.1050 returns to the chart after serving as a stepping stone for the pair to rise to higher ground. Also 1.0910 makes a comeback after being the low point in July so far.

1.0865 provided some support in late May and again last week. 1.0815 which worked in both directions is the  low of May and important support.

The next line is  1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003. 1.0715 joins the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

1.0660 worked nicely as support in April 2015. 1.0615, which worked in both directions during March 2015 and is better at support.

Another minor line is 1.0550, for  a role as support in the same period of time.  The very round level of 1.05 served as support during 2003.  The lowest level in over 12 years is 1.0462 and this makes it critical support.

I remain  neutral  on  EUR/USD

The Greek crisis has receded, after plenty of drama and high-stake poker playing. This is good news for the euro,  but Greece’s debt isn’t going anywhere so tough decisions will have to be made at  a later date. Over in the US, better numbers in Q2 are feeding rising speculation that US rates will rise, perhaps as early as September.

In our latest podcast, we drill down the deals, the aGreekment and Iran and the market impact.

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast
• For the kiwi, see the  NZDUSD forecast.