EUR/USD Forecast May 11-15

EUR/USD  moved up to new highs, but shed the gains in a volatile week. The upcoming week features yet another chapter in the Greek drama as well as important GDP data  . Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Data in the euro-zone was mixed,  with OK PMIs but weak German industrial data. The boost for the euro came from a sell-off in German bunds, that  triggered a squeeze on euro shorts. In the US,  the big trade deficit raised speculation for a contraction in Q1. Also the weak ADP report weighed heavily on the greenback. This sent EUR/USD to highs last seen in  February, but the move did not last too long. The mixed NFP report in the US eventually pushed the pair lower, to close with  only a small weekly gain.

EUR/USD daily chart  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Eurogroup meetings on Greece: Monday. May 11th was a yet another deadline for Greece and its creditors to reach a deal on, but this seems unlikely at the moment.  Low expectations mean that  if a deal is reached it could be positive for the euro. There has been some optimism  recently.
2. German WPI: Monday, 6:00. The Wholesale Price Index also feeds into the  general  inflation figures and impacts the final CPI. After a rise of 1% in March, a smaller 0.4% m/m gain is on the cards for April.
3. GDP data: Wednesday: France at 5:30, Germany at 6:00, Italy at 8:00 and the whole euro-zone at 9:00. We will now learn if growth has indeed picked up in Q1, as the weak euro may have contributed to exports. Starting with France, the second largest economy grew by only 0.1% in Q4 2014, continuing the path of hardly seeing any growth. We are now expecting +0.4% for Q1 2015. The zone’s locomotive, Germany enjoyed a very strong growth rate of 0.7% in Q4, and could lead growth once again by advancing 0.5% q/q. The zone’s third largest economy, Italy saw no growth after three consecutive quarters of contraction. Also here, we are now expecting positive growth of 0.2%. The euro-zone as a whole, enjoyed a better than expected growth rate of 0.3%, powered by Germany, but is still fragile. A wider advance, built on the three largest economies and Spain’s strong 0.9% growth rate (already reported earlier) is expected now: +0.5% Note that the German release has the biggest impact, but also the initial publication from France tends to move the dial.
4. German Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:00. The initial number for April came out at -0.1% m/m, better than expected. This will probably be confirmed now.
5. French  Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 6:45. The second largest economy in the zone has seen no change to employment levels in Q4 and another month of stagnation is on the cards. The country is still struggling with unemployment, as jobless seekers remain at high levels.  Note that at the same time, the country also releases CPI  data, which rose 0.7% in March and is expected to rise 0.2% in April.
6. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. After Germany disappointed with its numbers, we can expect the euro-zone figures to almost reach a standstill  in March after rising 1.1% in February. +0.1% is expected.
7. ECB Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 11:30. In the recent  meeting, the European Central Bank left policy unchanged. Draghi showed determination in implementing QE despite the recent improvement. We will now see what the different members talked about in the meeting, and if there was pressure from some German members to exit the QE program, something that seems unlikely now.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar  began the week with a slide but  remained  above the critical 1.1050 line (mentioned last week). It then leaped higher, reached almost 1.14 before closing just under 1.12.

Live chart of EUR/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”EURUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The round level of 1.15 has a psychological impact and it also worked as support in the past. 1.1450 capped the pair during February’s  recovery attempts.

Below, the historic line of 1.1373 (from November 2003) still  has a role as resistance. 1.1290, which was a peak in April and support in February is significant resistance.

The round number of 1.12 served as resistance to a recovery attempt and is now a pivotal line. It is followed by a low seen in  January  of 1.1113 which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR.

1.1050 was  a high point in March 2015 and now works as important support before the round level of  1.10. This is still a battle line.

The next line was minor support  back in  October 1999: 1.0910. It was resistance back then and was tested once again in March 2015.  This is followed by 1.0815 which worked in both directions.

The next line is  1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003. 1.0715 joins the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

1.0660 worked nicely as support in April 2015.  1.0615, which worked in both directions during March 2015 and is better at support.

Another minor line is 1.0550, for  a role as support in the same period of time.  The very round level of 1.05 served as support during 2003.  The lowest level in over 12 years is 1.0462 and this makes it critical support.

Below this point we have the very obvious level of  1 – EUR/USD parity, which is already eyed  by more  and more analysts

I turn from bullish to bearish  on  EUR/USD

The pair had its run on the euro short-squeeze and the USD weakness. With expectations being a bit too high for euro-zone growth in Q1, a disappointment cannot be ruled out and  the ECB’s QE program’s necessity will probably be reaffirmed. In the US, the theory that Q1 was terrible but Q2 is already positive is gaining more ground. All in all, monetary policy divergence could be better reflected in the pair, and this means a resumption of the bigger trend: down.

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast
• For the kiwi, see the  NZDUSD forecast.