EUR/USD Outlook – April 26-30

The upcoming week has many employment and inflation figures, as well as speeches from Trichet. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

We’ve seen many good European figures in the past week – this included rising prices and rising business confidence. All these struggled with the  never ending Greek troubles, that continue to be a burden on the Euro. OK, let’s start:

1. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: The president of the ECB will speak in multiple occasions this week, mostly in a trip to the US. Any comments about the Greek debt crisis or the state of the economies will shake the Euro. The first appearance will be in a New York conference on Monday at 16:30 GMT, on a light day. The second appearance will be in a conference in Chicago, on Tuesday at 13:15 GMT. Later on Tuesday, at 9:15 GMT, Trichet will talk at the Kellog School of Management in Evanston. Trichet returns to Europe and delivers a speech in Munich on Thursday at 11:30 GMT.
2. German GfK  Consumer Climate: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. This survey of 1000 consumers didn’t move in the past three months, exactly like the German economy. Last week’s surveys were better than expected. This time, it’s predicted to edge up from 3.2 to 3.4 points, showing a tiny improvement in sentiment.
3. German CPI: Published during Wednesday. The different German states release their consumer prices indices during the day to build the initial release of German CPI. After a surprising rise of 0.5% last month, prices are expected to edge up by 0.1% this time. After German producer prices jumped, a higher rise won’t be a big surprise.
4. German Unemployment Change: Published on Thursday at 7:55 GMT. A significant drop int he number of unemployed people was reported last month – 31,000. Expectations were for a rise. Economists are optimistic this time, and another drop of 11,000 is expected this time, helping to stabilize the falling Euro.
5. M3 Money Supply: Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT. The reduction in the amount of money in circulation, seen 3 times in  recent  months, is an expression of the slowdown. A squeeze is expected for the fourth time – but only 0.1% this time.
6. CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. European figures come to a climax on Friday with the simultaneous release of inflation end employment together. European inflation is expected to rise by an annual rate of 1.4%, like last month. A stronger rise will be a problem for Trichet. Raising the rates can hurt the recovery.
7. Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s unemployment rate stands at around 10% in the past 4 months. The rate varies between Germany and France which have stronger economies, and countries like Spain, that has an unemployment rate of nearly 20%. The average 10% is expected to remain unchanged. A drop will be a great relief.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro had another weekend gap, this time lower. It then climbed to 1.3520, which is a new minor resistance line (didn’t appear in last week’s outlook). It then began dropping, past 1.3380 and down under 1.3267, reaching a new year-to-date low at 1.3201 before making a comeback and closing just under 1.3380.

Looking down, 1.3267, the previous yearly low, is the initial support line – it was breached only for a few hours. Below, 1.3080 is the next line of support, being the the place where the Euro began the long-term run in 2009.

Looking up, 1.3520 is a minor resistance line on the way up. 1.37, which was a peak two weeks ago when hopes were high, is a stronger line of resistance. The strongest line is 1.3850. The Euro’s failure to break this line sent it down.

I continue being bearish on the Euro.

Despite improving figures, the Euro-zone’s debt problems, especially with the never-ending Greek story, continue to point downwards.

The Euro gets excellent analysis on the web. Here are my favorites:

• Kathy Lien explains the deteriorating situation of Greece in a TV interview.
• James Chen analyzed EUR/USD  before the breakdown and sees a continuation of the bearish sentiment.
• Casey Stubbs provides a free signal to short EUR/JPY.
• TheLFB analyze the impressive last minute comeback and discuss the Greek issues.
• TheGeekKnows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the kiwi, here’s the  NZD/USD forecast.

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