EUR/USD Outlook – August 31 – September 4 2009

EUR/USD traded up and down this week, closing at the same place. This week’s rate decision is the peak of 11 important European releases. Here’s a review of the European indicators and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD forex chart with the uptrend channels marked:

Last week’s consumer surveys showed strength, and the so did the Final German GDP but it wasn’t enough to make a difference. The European calendar is packed this week with all sorts of indicators. Let’s go:

1. CPI Flash Estimate: Europe’s deflation is a big burden on EUR/USD. After German CPI showed some price hikes last week, the all-European figure  is the first important release for the week. After falling by 0.7% last month, prices are expected to dip by “only” 0.4% this time. The numbers are annually adjusted. Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT.
2. German Retail Sales: Germany’s consumers are somewhat optimistic, as seen in last week’s surveys. This confidence is expected to be reflected in retail sales, which are predicted to rise by 0.7% after falling last time by 1.3%. Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT.
3. German Unemployment Change: Elections in Germany are due this month, and unemployment is one of the most debated issues. After showing a drop of 6000 last time, German unemployment change is expected to rise by 33,000, a figure that will put pressure on the Euro. Published on Tuesday at 7:55 GMT.
4. Final Manufacturing PMI: After the Flash Manufacturing PMI was better than expected the final read is expected to confirm the initial release, at 47.9. Only a big surprise will have a serious impact, since it’s published on Tuesday at 11:00, just 5 minutes after the German Unemployment Change.
5. Unemployment Rate: The all-European unemployment rate lags after Germany’s release. In fact, most of the continent lags behind the German recovery. Still, this figure is closely watched by the ECB. Unemployment is expected to rise from 9.4% to 9.5%, after surprising last month. Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT, and completes a busy morning of European indicators.
6. Revised GDP: The second release of GDP for the second quarter is expected to confirm the initial Flash GDP, and show a contraction of 0.1%. Germany and France have posted growth in the second quarter, but the continent as a whole lags behind. Note that there’s still a final release later on. Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT.
7. PPI: European Producer Price Index is declining. A drop in prices is common to producers and consumers. Last month, PPI surprised with the first rise this year, but it was probably only temporary – PPI is expected to fall by 0.5% this month. Published at the same time as the Revised GDP, so only a huge surprise will make an impact on EUR/USD.
8. Final Services PMI: Following the final manufacturing PMI, also the final release for the services sector is expected to be confirmed at 49.5, very close to the 50 mark. Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT.
9. Retail Sales: After the release of German Retail Sales and less than 3 hours before the rate decision, this important economic indicator might be overlooked. After falling for two consecutive months, European retail sales are predicted to rise by 0.3%. Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.
10. Rate decision: This is the most important event of the week. Jean-Claude Trichet and his fellow ECB members are expected to leave the  Minimum Bid Rate at 1% for the fifth month in a row, on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. There are absolutely no inflationary pressures in Europe – the continent’s prices are dropping. The only issue that is unknown is the Quantitative Easing program, which is very limited in Europe. Jean-Claude Trichet might refer to it in the ECB Press Conference, due 45 minutes later.
11. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Less than a day after the aforementioned press  conference, the ECB president will be speaking in a conference in Frankfurt. He’ll speak about the monetary policy, at the wake of the G20 meetings in London, and quite close to the Non-Farm Payrolls release. EUR/USD will definitely shake.

EUR/USD will naturally move also by American releases, with NFP being the most important one.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD traded in a narrow range until Wednesday, when it fell down to 1.42. This didn’t last long, as the dollar’s fall on Thursday evening sent it way up, passing the important 1.44 mark. It finally closed at 1.4329, almost like last week.

The uptrend channels that I’ve mentioned in last week’s EUR/USD outlook still hold, although they are narrowing. These uptrend channels seem capped by a normal resistance line at 1.4444. This was a peak in recent months that the EUR/USD couldn’t pass. I’ve marked this line as well.

This week’s expected surge in volume and the packed calendar offer an opportunity for a breakout. But in which direction? Last week I said that EUR/USD is going up, but very cautiously.

This week, I’m not so sure where it’s going.

Here are two recent EUR/USD technical opinions:

• From Jay Norris of the Trading University, Chicago Blog.
• From Mohammed Isah, of FXTechStrategy.
• From Casey Stubbs, of Winners Edge Trading.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of this week’s major events, read the  Forex Weekly Outlook.
• For GBP/USD, check out the  British Pound Outlook.
• For the USD/CAD, read the  Canadian Dollar Outlook.
• For the Aussie, read the Aussie Outlook.