The euro finally broke out of range, and took a big dive of 550 pips for the week. Will this continue or will we see some consolidation? It depends a lot on Greece, as well as on Trichet, which will have more opportunities to rock the euro.
Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now on lower ground and below long term support.
Greece is on the brink of a hard default, and this is slowly being acknowledged. Will Greece receive the next tranche of aid? The drama continues as Greece might encounter a payment freeze. Facing reality has also been seen with the ECB, that lowered growth and inflation forecasts in a move that triggered the downfall. The huge Swiss intervention and the German court ruling provided little help. The last blow came from the resignation of German ECB member Juergen Stark.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Monday. After the extravagant show that the president of the ECB provided, he’ll have another chance to share his thoughts and impact the euro early in the week. He will appear in Basel. Trichet will also appear in Wroclaw on Thursday at 18:00, but this will likely be of smaller importance.
- French CPI: Tuesday, 5:30. Europe’s second largest economy has experienced a surprising drop in consumer prices last month, 0.4%. A correction, with a rise of 0.3% is expected now.
- Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. A bounce back in industrial output is likely now – 1.5%. Last month saw a disappointing drop of 0.7%. Note that while the figure for the whole continent is published after Germany and France published theirs’, the release usually surprises.
- ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. One week after the rate decision, we’ll get to see what made the European Central Bank make a big shift in forecasts, from inflation risks to growth risks. The publication of the data will shed some light.
- CPI: Thursday, 9:00. According to the initial release, headline inflation remained at an annual level of 2.5% for another month in a row. This will likely be confirmed now. The focus may shift to the Core CPI figure: it dropped sharply last month to 1.2%, showing that “secondary effects” of inflation are muted.
- Current Account: Friday, 8:00. This wide figure, which includes trade balance and also services, cash and more, saw a wider deficit, that reached 7.4 billion. It is expected to squeeze to 5.6 billion now.
- Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. Germany saw a drop in exports, that squeezed its trade surplus. Nevertheless, the figure for the whole euro area will likely improve this time, from the deficit of 1.6 billion reported last month.
* All times are GMT.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar began the week with a gap lower and slid to support at 1.4030. The Swiss intervention sent it to resistance at 1.4282 (discussed last week) but this was short lived. The pair eventually lost support at 1.3950, and fell to a 6 month low below 1.3838. This didn’t stop there and the pair closed at 1.3649 – very low.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start from a much lower point: the peak of November 2010 at 1.4282 proved its strength once again. This line works better as resistance than as support, and capped the pair before the big fall. 1.4220, is another cap high in the sky.
1.4160 switched positions quickly and capped a recovery attempt. It is a veteran line. The round number of 1.41 managed to serve as a stubborn line of resistance as well.
Just above the round number of 1.40, we find the important line of 1.4030 turned into resistance – it was quite significant. 1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges and stopped the pair temporarily.
The swing low of 1.3838 held the pair and after EUR/USD fell to a six month low, it turned into quick support. This was also a line of support last year. Below, 1.3750 was an important line in the past but is only minor now.
1.3710 is immediate resistance at the moment. It was minor resistance early in the year. Just below the fresh lows, 1.3620 is immediate support.
More significant support is at 1.3570 which provided support in January and also beforehand. It’s followed by 1.3510 which provides a backup.
Very serious support is at 1.3440. It separated ranges in a very clear way many times in the past, making it of very high importance.
Minor support is at 1.3350, followed by 1.3250 which held the pair early in the year. Stronger support is at 1.3080, before the ultimate trough of 2011 at 1.2873.
Trendlines broken to the downside
As seen on the graph, downtrend support that began in May and continued in July was broken to the downside. In addition, there’s a longer line that has been broken: it began in June 2010, was followed in January 2011 and is clearly lost now.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
There is a strong case for consolidation and even correction after the huge fall. Also the wait for the FOMC meeting which ends on September 21st also supports a “wait and see” mode. Nevertheless, the Greek crisis is moving quite fast towards the abyss, and the loss of so much technical support and the softer outlooks provide room for more falls.
If you are interested in an alternative way of trading, check out the weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD of course.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealanddollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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