EUR/USD began the new trading week with a slide from the highs reached late in the previous week. The reasons for this modest slide comes from outside the euro-zone: the weak Chinese data over the weekend, the growing tension towards the FOMC decision and even Scotland’s referendum are on the agenda. Will we see the pair exit the comfortable range?
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair began high but eventually dropped below 1.2960.
- Current range: 1.2920 to 1.2960
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2920, 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.28 and 1.2750.
- Above: 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3050, 1.31 and 1.3175.
- There are two clear ranges: 1.2865 to 1.2920 and 1.2920 to 1.2955.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 9:00 Euro-zone Trade Balance. Exp. 15.9 billion.
- 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Exp. 16.4 points.
- 13:15 US industrial output. Exp. +0.4%.
- 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Exp. 79.3%
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Weakness in China: Industrial output in China grew at the slowest pace since 2008 and this triggered worries all over the world. Europe and Germany in particular have busy trade with the economic giant and a slowdown is a worry, triggering a “risk off” environment.
- Tensions towards the FOMC: The US continues growing nicely with Friday’s good figures reminding us of this strength. However, there are also signs of stagnation, seen in jobless claims for example. What will the Fed do?. A 7th taper is expected, but what will the sentiment be? There is speculation that the Fed will remove the word “considerable” regarding the timing of the first rate hike, but there are reasons to think otherwise. We talk about this in the latest podcast.
- Scottish reverberations: Thursday’s referendum in Scotland is controlling every move of GBP, with mixed polls, but also has implications for the euro: a Yes vote would raise the cause of Catalonia in Spain and perhaps other regions seeking independence.
- Europe awaits German business sentiment and inflation data: The European front will warm up later in the week with the German ZEW business survey and final inflation data for August. So far, it is also relatively quiet on the other front: Ukraine. See how to trade the German ZEW number with EURUSD.
In our latest podcast, we talk about the FOMC meeting.
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