Euro dollar is settling in low ground after the big blow it got from the action and especially the inaction by the FOMC. Today’s busy calendar could open the door for more falls.
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: Falls were slightly extended, and the pair fell below minor support at 1.3580.
- Current range: 1.35 to 1.3580.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3350, 1.3250, 1.3180.
- Above: 1.3580, 1.3630, 1.37, 1.3750 1.3838, 1.3788, 1.3838, 1.3950, 1.4030
- Very important support is getting close, at 1.3440. This is the key line that separated ranges many times in the past.
- 1.3630 is significant resistance on the upside.
Euro/Dollar higher in range – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 54.4 points. Actual 52.5 – significant slowdown.
- 7:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 48.6 points. Actual 47.3. – deeper contraction. Both French numbers are disappointing.
- 7:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 50.6 points. Actual 50.3 points.
- 7:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 50.2 points. Actual 50 – exactly in the line separating contraction and growth.
- 8:00 Euro zone Flash Services PMI. Exp. 51.1 points.
- 8:00 Euro zone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 48.6 points.
- 9:00 Euro zone Industrial New Orders. Exp. -1.1%.
- 12:30 US Unemployment claims. Exp. 419K.
- 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. +0.2%.
- 14:00 OFHEO HPI. Exp. 0%.
- 14:00 European Consumer Confidence. Exp. -18 points.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Bernanke Doesn’t Deliver: The Federal reserve announced a $400 billion operation to twist the yield curve – lower long term interest rates and allow short term yields to rise. The disappointment comes from what is not in the statement: no lower interest on excess reserves, no inflation / growth targets and no signs whatsoever of QE3. This sent the dollar up across the board, and will continue to impact currencies for quite some time.
- Troika and Greece get closer: The Greeks are ready to accept more harsh measures as demanded by the troika in order to release the next tranche of aid €8 billion. . Among these demands, is acut of 100K jobs in Greece. The general notion is that this will eventually pass, but the danger of default looms.
- More economic weakness?: After German business confidence disappointed earlier in the week, the bulk of economic indicators will be watched closely.
- French banks in trouble: Fresh reports show more pressure on French banks. German conglomerate Siemens withdrew €500 from Societe Generale. In addition, Bank of China halts FX swaps with European banks, with Greece exposed French banks in the limelight. Also Lloyds withdrew money. The ECB made collateral rules more flexible. All this joins the big dollar liquidity move announced by 5 central banks.
- More bearish Euro forecasts: Barclays Capital joined PIMCO and Deutsche Bank with bearish forecasts for EUR/USD, with a forecast of 1.33 within a month and 1.25 within three months.
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