EUR/USD is inching up on risk aversion, repeating the movements seen last week. But the jury remains out on what’s next.
Here are several views:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
The technical strategy teams at Nomura, UOB Group, Barclays Capital, and SocGen provide their views on the technical setup on EUR/USD ongoing correction.
Nomura: shallow correction higher marks wave-(2); lower now. The rally to 1.1332 satisfies a shallow correction of the sharp 1.17 to 1.1156 decline. This countertrend rally sets the stage for a fresh decline to below 1.1156 as wave-(3) unfolds. S/t, resistance and risk to this call is the o/n high at 1.1332. The next key break level is channel and old neckline support near 1.1214.
UOB: EUR/USD is likely in the early stages of forming a base. The sharp drop from the high of 1.1708/13 last Monday is losing momentum and the current movement appears to be the early stages of a bottoming process. However, until there is a clear break above 1.1370, another attempt to move towards the major support at 1.1105 cannot be ruled out just yet
Barclays: We are bearish and would look to fade upticks in range towards 1.1430. Monthly and weekly candles point to further downside. Our initial targets are towards the 1.1000/1.1020 area.
SocGen: After re-integration within the triangle, EUR/USD has hit the graphical support and an upward trend near 1.12. Indeed, it tested the key support at 1.05/1.04 and a corrective recovery is in force. However, last month the pair hasn’t been able to break above the recent range of open/closes (1.1290 on closing basis while 1.1440 otherwise). This highlights that previous broad range still persists and a move above 1.14/1.1440 is needed to signal further recovery towards 1.1810…Very short term, holding 1.12 a recovery looks likely towards 1.14/1.1440.
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