The FOMC Meeting Minutes were more dovish than the original statement in late October. However, it is hard to say that the dollar sold off following the release.
The team at BofA Merrill has 4 takeaways from the minutes:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
The US dollar was little changed, on net, following the release of the October FOMC Minutes, notes Bank of America Merrill Lynch. BofA makes the following takes on the the USD reaction to the FOMC minutes.
1- The Committee’s increased alertness to the fall in market-based measures of inflation expectations, and slightly more dovish tone (relative to the statement) tilted the balance in a modestly USD-negative direction.
2- But, in light of the decline in market- and survey-based measures of inflation expectations this was likely priced in, illustrated by the USD’s reversal of its post-minutes weakness.
3- Concern about low inflation expectations and foreign growth could show up in the December statement, but even with a data dependent stance, the Fed would still be on pace to hike next year, leaving policy divergence a US dollar positive factor in 2015.
4- At face value, the October minutes should have been modest near-term negative but not a game changer. The USD’s inability to selloff to the dovish tilt may even suggest positioning is not as long as people assume.
For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus
By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.
Share
