Forex Daily Analysis – January 30th 2009
The last day of January provides lots of economic indicators everywhere. The main event of the day is the Advance GDP in the US, which is expected to fall by a huge 5.4%.
In Japan, much data is released: the yearly Household Spending is expected to drop by 3.6%. The Tokyo Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% in Japan.
The most important figure in Japan is the monthly Prelim Industrial Production which was very gloomy last time, dropping 8.5%. This time the forecast already lacks any optimism - Prelim Industrial Production is expected to fall by 8.9%.
More from Japan on Friday morning: Unemployment Rate (late figure, 4.1 expected)), National Core CPI and yearly Housing Starts, expected to drop by 7.6%.
In Australia, the Private Sector Credit is expected to rise by 0.5%. This might impact AUD/USD.
The British Pound will also get some news: GfK Consumer Confidence is predicted to fall by 35 points. Monthly Net Lending to Individuals is expected to squeeze to 1.3 billion. Also Mortgage Approvals are due.
In Europe, the important yearly CPI Flash Estimate is fore casted to rise by 1.4. The all European Unemployment Rate, which is a late figure, is expected to rise by 0.1% to 7.9%.
As usual, the party begins at 13:30 GMT: Both Canada and the US will publish the GDP. In Canada it’s a monthly figure, that is expected to fall by 0.5%.
Contraction is also expected in the US: the last quarter of 2008 was probably devestating: the figure is expected to show an annual fall of 5.4% – something not seen in many years.
While Forex traders will be digesting the the GDP, complementing figures will be released: quarterly Advance GDP Price Index and quarterly Employment Cost Index. Both are expected to rise.
A little over an hour later, two more US figures will be published: the Chicago PMI and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. The University of Michigan has a strong reputation of showing the path of the economy, anddespite being a revised figure, this data will have a lot of impact.
That’s it.
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I think that traders are bracing for a bad GDP number and that is so obvious in futures and equities trading action! With bad economic US data, contracting economy and global recession spreading like a "bad disease", investors have made their choice: for now one they trust in the US dollar! Lets see how long this lasts as next week's payroll data is likely to put things in perspective as 1.5M of jobs lost in three months is alarming in anyones books!
Yup, everywhere economies are in recession. The US brought the recession, and will probably be the first to get out of it.
The week ahead will be tense, waiting for NFP. 1.5 million job losses in one quarter sure is scary…
I am all the time a foul commenter.how can you get optimistic response from me,still modern and informative.thanx buddy.