Forex Daily Outlook – December 14 2010



US Retail Sales, FOMC statement, US PPI and German ZEW Economic Sentiment are the leading events on this busy day. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Retail Sales a primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity is likely to drop by 0.5%, while the Core Retail Sales (excluding automobiles) is about to rise by 0.3%.

Later in the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Also in the US, Federal Funds Rate is likely to remain 0.25%, Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

More in the US, Producer Price Index (PPI), price of finished goods and services sold by producers is about to rise by 0.2% and the Core PPI (excluding food and energy;) is about to rise by 0.8%. leading indicator of consumer inflation – when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

Finally in the US, Business Inventories, value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers is due to reduce by 0.1%. It’s a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods once they have depleted inventories.

In Canada, Labor Productivity, labor efficiency when producing goods and services is about to rise by 1.1%.

More in Canada, Leading Index, level of a composite index based on 10 economic indicators is predicted a 0.4% rise following 0.2% in the previous month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German ZEW Economic Sentiment a leading indicator of economic health in Germany is expected to climb to 3.8 after a 1.8 rise. This index experienced sharp drops following April 2010 while ZEW Economic Sentiment for the Euro-zone is predicted to climb to 10.3 following a better than expected 13.8 showing growing optimism among investors about the Euro-zone economy.

Also in Europe, Industrial Production is also shaping up with predictions of 1.4% growth after 0.7% drop.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, CPI inflation rate remains well above the BOE inflation target predicted to rise by 3.1% – 0.1% lower than in the previous month whike the Core CPI is also dropping from 2.7% to 2.6%.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, SECO Economic Forecasts A report by The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs recasts the major GDP components such as consumption and investment, together with key indicators including employment and inflation.

In Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment based on a Survey of about 1,200 consumers regarding economic conditions plunged 5.3% in November following 3.3% rise in the previous month. A smaller drop is expected now.

Later in Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Dr. Guy Debelle speaks at the 23rd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, in Sydney. He’s responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members on interest rates. His words may affect the market.

Finally in Australia, New Motor Vehicle Sales dropped 0.6% in October following 1.0% climb in the prior month. A rise is expected now.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Tankan Manufacturing Index, The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index grew 7 points reaching 8 in the September quarter A 4 point rise is expected now. The Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index also improved gaining 2 points in the third quarter better than -2 forecasted following -5 reading in Q2. A flat Rate is predicted now.

More in Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity a leading indicator of economic health plunged 0.9% during September and is expected to gain 0.4% in October.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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About

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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