Forex Daily Outlook – December 16th 2009



A very long day expects forex traders, with the FOMC meeting in the limelight. Also note British unemployment, Australian GDP,  and many more important figures. Let’s see what’s awaiting us:

Australia provides a very strong start for the day, with the release of GDP for the third quarter. Australia, that never dipped into an official recession, is predicted to post 0.4% growth in the GDP, less than last month’s 0.6% expansion.

After the somewhat dovish meeting minutes yesterday, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance. He has shown optimism in the past and can push the Aussie higher.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD USD forecast.

In Europe, purchasing managers’ numbers will be released: French Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI start, and then the same figures are published in Germany. Finally the numbers for the whole continent are released. All the scores are above 50, indicating expansion, and most of them are expected to rise.

European prices are finally expected to grow: CPI is expected to be confirmed with a rise of 0.6% (annualized). Core CPI is expected to be confirmed at an annual rise of 1.2%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR USD forecast.

In Britain, we have the all-important Claimant Count Change, which is the earliest indicator of employment. Last month’s number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose only by 12.9K. This was significantly better than the early expectations. This time, they’re predicted to rise to 14.2K.

The British Unemployment is published for the previous month, but is of high importance. Yet again, economists expect a rise from 7.8% to 8%, but learning from the near past, this could be better.

In Canada, Manufacturing Sales are predicted to rise by 0.5%, less than last month’s rise of 1.4%. The Canadian dollar is doing OK this week. The governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, will speak later on in the day, and might complain again about the strong currency.

For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD forecast.

US figures: Ben Bernanke, housing and inflation

Moving to the US, we have lots of figures. In the housing sector, Building Permits are predicted to rise from 550,000 to 580,000 which will show continued stability. Housing Starts are expected to make a bigger jump, from 530,000 to 590,000. Stronger figures were seen in home sales, so maybe we’ll get better numbers also here.

American CPI is predicted to rise by 0.4%, more than last month’s 0.3% rise. Core CPI, no less important, is predicted to rise by 0.2%, exactly like last month. Prices need to rise at a faster pace for a rate hike to come earlier.

The main dish for today is the FOMC Statement: While Ben Bernanke and his colleagues aren’y expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate, there are high expectations to change the wording of the FOMC Statement.

The focus will be on the specific words about the “extended period” of low rates. Following the excellent Non-Farm Payrolls and the good retail sales, he might omit these words – this will push the dollar higher. Copy-pasting the same statement will be dollar negative.

Read more about the Fed decision, where’s there’s middle ground.

That’s it for today, a long day indeed. Happy forex trading!

Trade together with Currensee




About

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor

I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.

Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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