Forex Daily Outlook – December 1st 2009

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Yohay
Filed Under Daily Forex Forecast | Leave a Comment

Forex markets are still digesting the Dubai crisis as lots of indicators pour in. A big day awaits forex traders: a rate decision in Australia, GDP in Switzerland and Pending Home Sales are only a small portion of the events today. Let’s see what’s on the crowded calendar:

Australian Building Approvals start the day with an expected 2% rise, after a 2.7% leap last month. This indicator is only a starter for the rate decision.

The RBA is expected to raise the Cash Rate to 3.75%. Australia already has the highest interest rate in the West, and the central bank has already raised the rates twice in recent month. A third raise of 0.25% is expected today. Hints about future policy can be found in the RBA Rate Statement.

Another notable Australian release is Commodity Prices. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, GDP for the third quarter is expected to rise by 0.3%, marking the end of recession. Swiss GDP fell by 0.3% in Q2. Later in Switzerland, SVME PMI is predicted to edge up to 54.9 points.

In Germany, Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.6%, after falling by 0.2% last month. EUR/USD opened the week higher, but is still trading in a range and looking for a direction.

Also employment figures are due in Europe: German Unemployment Change, that was good in recent months and fell, is expected to rise by 5K. A drop in unemployment sure is possible.

European Unemployment Rate is also published today. Although being based on some figures that have already been released by the big economies, this figure is crucial for policymakers. It’s expected to edge up from 9.7% to 9.8%, as it ticked up in recent months.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Britain, Nationwide HPI is finally due today. It’s expected to rise by 0.4%, exactly like last month. Another important figure is the Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to rise from 53.7 to 54.1 points. Also note a speech by Adam Posen, a member of the MPC.

For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from the highs of 55.7 to 54.8. This indicator has surprised to the upside in recent months.

At the same time, 15:00 GMT, Pending Home Sales are expected to drop by 0.4% after making a huge jump of 6.1% last month. Note that other housing indicators have been better than expected.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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