Forex Daily Outlook – March 26th 2009

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Yohay
Filed Under Daily Forex Forecast | Leave a Comment

Major releases in Britain today will set the course of the Pound, which has shown strength. In America, Final GDP and Unemployment Claims will get attention, and note major releases in Japan and New Zealand near the end of the day.

Australia’s RBA Financial Stability Review starts the day. Australia seems to have a very stable economy. I wonder if it will be reflected in this review.

In Europe, the GfK German Consumer Climate will draw attention, especially after yesterday’s German Ifo Business Climate. Also in Europe: M3 Money Supply and Private Loans.

In Britain, Nationwide HPI is expected to drop by 1.5%, after last month’s fall of 1.8%. Contrary to the US, British housing is far from the bottom.

Another major release in Britain is the Retail Sales. It’s expected to decline by 0.3%. A bigger drop won’t be a big surprise.

American Unemployment Claims is expected to stay unchanged, at 649K. With the recent surprises in Core Durable Goods Orders, this figure could be better this week. The correlation may be weak, apart from the American economy seeing some hope.

But the previous quarter was definitely bad. Final GDP is expected to be revised downwards, to -6.6% (annually adjusted). This is worse than 6.2% in the previous release, and much worse than the Prelim GDP, that stood on 3.8%.

Lots of speeches are due in the US: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will all speak today. Geithner proved yesterday that he can shake the markets in style…

New Zealand will be star at the end of the day: Quarterly GDP is expected to show contraction of 1.1%. If this is confirmed, it will complete a full year of rrecession in New Zealand. NZD/USD has shown strength lately. Will this trend stop?

Also in New Zealand, Trade Balance is expected to show a surplus of 100M, after showing a deficit last time.

And just before midnight GMT, Japan will release major figures: Tokyo Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% (annually adjusted), very stable. Too stable.

Another weak figure is Retail Sales. If there will be no surprise, it’s expected to fall by 3.6$ (annually adjusted) after dropping last time by 2.4%.

That’s it. Happy Forex Trading!

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