Forex Daily Outlook – March 31st 2010



American ADP payrolls, factory orders, Canadian GDP and the important Japanese Tankan indicator are the highlights of a very busy day n forex trading. There are many more events from all over the world. Let’s see what’s up for today.

Australia provides a strong start to the day with two major releases: Retail Sales, which rose by 1.2% last month, are expected to advance in a moderate pace this time – 0.3%. Building Approvals, which made a big dive of 7% last month, are expected to recover and rise 2.2%. Also note the Private Sector Credit, which is expected to rise by 0.4%, the same as last month.

On the other side of the day, the AIG Manufacturing Index and the MI Inflation Gauge will both be released, and will move the Aussie. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Average Cash Earnings will probably remain unchanged after an annual drop of 0.2% last time. Japanese Housing Starts are predicted to fall once again.

The more interesting release in Japan is due at the end of the day: the Tankan Manufacturing Index is expected to rise from -24 to -14. Despite the advance, this very important quarterly gauge is expected to remain negative, showing that the economy is still struggling.

In New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence will probably shake NZD/USD. This is an important indicator for kiwi traders.

In Europe, the German Unemployment Change will probably show another rise in unemployment – 10,000 people, more than last month’s 7,000. This will be a prelude for the all-European unemployment rate, which is predicted to rise from 9.9% to 10%.

We also get an inflation figure from Europe – the CPI Flash Estimate is estimated to rise by an annual rate of 1.1%, more than last month’s 0.9%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer, an important indicator for this small country, is expected to edge up from 1.87 to 1.91 points, helping the Swissy advance.

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will shake the markets towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. A gain of 38,000 jobs will probably be seen by ADP, after a drop of 20,000 last month.

Later in the US, Chicago PMI is expected to edge down from 62.6 to 61.5 points, still quite high. Factory Orders, that rose by 1.7% last month, are expected to rise by 0.5% this time – a more moderate pace.

Later in the US, FOMC member Elizabeth Duke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will make public appearances, and might shake the markets as well.

In Canada, the monthly GDP is due: last month’s strong rise of 0.6% sent the loonie much higher, and the expected growth of 0.5% will probably do the same.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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About

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor

I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.

Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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