Forex Daily Outlook – September 15th 2009

After the dollar renewed its falls, a busy day expects the forex markets. The calendar is packed with events, including Retail Sales, PPI and a speech by Ben Bernanke. There are more important indicators in other parts of the world as well. Let’s see what’s up today:

Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes showed that a rate hike isn’t so close. Recovery has yet to prove itself. Australian Housing Starts were also Aussie-bearish, with a fall of 3.7%, contrary to an expected 2.1% rise.

Swiss Industrial Production is expected to leap by 7.8%, after falling by 13.1% last time. The Swissy is doing quite well. USD/CHF is at new ground. For more on the Swissy, read the USD/CHF Outlook.

In Europe, French CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, after falling by the same scale last time. Later, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is predicted to advance from 56.1 to 59.9 points. Also the all-European ZEW Economic Sentiment is released at the same time, and is also expected to improve.

EUR/USD is now ready for the next move. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

In Britain, CPI is expected to that prices are advancing more slowly – 1.4% instead of 1.8% (annually adjusted). Retail Price Index (RPI) is published at the same time, and is expected to show a continued fall in prices. Immediately afterwards, Inflation Report Hearings begin in parliament. Quotes regarding the currency markets could move the Pound.

GBP/USD is still under 1.6660 at the time of writing. Where will it go? Check out the British Pound Outlook for more on GBP/USD.

In Canada, Labor Productivity is expected to rise by 0.4% in the last quarter, following a previous rise. Later in Canada, BOC Deputy Governor John Murray will speak about the economic crisis.

USD/CAD is looking for a direction. For more on the Canadian dollar, read the USD/CAD Outlook.

In the US, there are lots of indicators today: Retail Sales are expected to rise by 1.9% – quite optimistic after last month’s drop. Also Core Retail Sales carry optimistic expectations, with an expected rise of 0.4% after falling by 0.6% last month.

Producer Price Index, PPI, is expected to turn positive as well, and rise by 0.9% after falling by 0.9% last month. Core PPI is predicted to turn from a 0.1% drop to a 0.1% rise.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index is also expected to advance, from 12.1 to 14.7 points. Business Inventories are expected to decline, but that’s also optimistic for the dollar – less stock means more demand and higher prices.

Ben Bernanke will be speaking about the crisis in a speech in Washington. Will he warn the bankers, like Obama did yesterday? Will he hint about future policy?