Forex Weekly Outlook – Aug 29 – Sep 2

We ended the week with QE3 off the table. Or is it? US housing data, and Consumer confidence, US FOMC Meeting Minutes,  Canadian and Swiss GDP, US employment data including NFP are just a few of the interesting events awaiting us this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers ahead.

Last week US  durable goods orders leaped by 4%, well above the 2.1% increase expected.  The  German Ifo Business Climate  was weaker than expected and the ZEW Economic Sentiment  It fell to a level of -37.6, much worse than estimated. Will we see further improvement in the US economy this week? And will the Euro-zone crisis continue?

Let’s start

1. US Pending Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. US Pending home sales climbed by 2.4% in June reaching 90.9 after rising by 8.2% in May due to the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit. In order to ensure recovery in home sales the market needs to have normal credit conditions to enable buyers to get convenient mortgages. A drop of 0.2% is expected now.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumers Confidence unexpectedly increased in July to 59.5 following a revised 57.6 reading in June. Economists expected sentiment to reach 57.1. The increase was mainly due to a decrease in oil prices but may go down again if unemployment will remain above the 9.0% line. A drop to 52.4 is predicted.
3. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 18:00. In its last FOMC Meeting the Feds decided to maintain the interest rates between 0.00% and 0.25 %, in line with predictions, and added a pledge to leave rates unchanged until mid 2013. We already know that 3 out of 10 members opposed it. We’ll now get to see the details.
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. Private employment grew by 114,000 in July following 145,000 additional jobs in July. These readings are lower than required for a real change in the job market, although small businesses show a continuous improvement. A lower number of 105,000 new jobs is expected.
5. Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada’s gross domestic product slid unexpectedly by 0.3% in May, following wildfires damaging mining gas and oil sectors. This may also reflect upon the 2nd quarter. This pessimistic condition will not give room for rate hikes in the near future. A flat reading is expected now.
6. Swiss GDP: Thursday, 5:45. The Swiss economy expanded by a mere 0.3% in the first quarter with lower consumption and investments following 0.8% gain in the previous quarter. Economists predicted 0.6% rise. Nevertheless exports are still strong.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.  Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week rising by 417,000 while   expecting 403,000 increase due to a strike declared by Verizon Communications artificially inflating the number of jobless claims and can badly affect the non-farm payrolls. But the overall level of jobless claims without Verizon strike would stand at 410,000 which is not so bad but also not good enough. A drop to 409,000 is predicted now.
8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI increased for the24th consecutive month from 55.3 in June to 50.9 growth in July indicating more economic activity in July and a general sense of expansion. A drop to 48.9 is forecasted.
9. US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 12:30. – U.S. Nonfarm payrolls expanded more than expected in July rising by 117,000 new jobs compared to 46,000 gains in the previous month and above the 85,000 new jobs estimated. This impressive growth indicates better chances for a real growth and a strong recovery in 2012. A smaller gain of 99,000 new positions is expected now.
10. US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. Unemployment rate has contracted to 9.1% in July after a generous job growth of 117,000 indicating improvement in the US economy and the job market. The same rate is expected now.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.