The US dollar eventually remained almost unchanged in thin, yet volatile holiday trading. As the page turns to 2013, the calendar gets busy. Will the fiscal cliff be resolved before the 2013? US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change are important stepping stones to the US Non-Farm Payrolls which are all major market movers starting this year. Here is an outlook on the main event this week.
Last week US unemployment claims edged down 12,000 reaching 350,000 claims but consumer confidence declined more than expected in December reaching 65.1 from 71.5 in November, probably related to the uncertainty surrounding the oncoming fiscal cliff. Will the US policy makers succeed to avoid the fiscal cliff? Efforts to announce a deal before December 31st continue also into the weekend, but there are growing chances that the US will go over the cliff. This remains a major market mover. Let’s Start
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI index declined unexpectedly to 49.5% in November flipping to contraction after a 51.7% reading in October. Economists expected a moderate decline to 51.5. Employment, backlog of orders, exports and imports contracted while production increased. A rise to 50.2 is expected now.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 13:15. The US private sector excluding the farming industry added 118,000 new positions in November following 157,000 in October. The relatively low reading could be accounted for by Sandy effects. Without Hurricane Sandy, the report may have been much higher. A further rise of 134,000 is expected this time.
- US Unemployment Claims; Thursday, 13:30. Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 350,000 last week, much better than the 365,000 predicted by analysts. However this extremely low reading was probably due to Christmas office closure. Nevertheless, according to the most recent four-week moving average there has been some improvement in the job market. Another decline to 345,000 is forecast.
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 19:00. In the last FOMC meeting held in November, the Fed announced QE4: open ended buys of treasuries worth $45, adding to the QE3 purchase of MBS worth $40. In addition, the Fed announced that rates would remain low until employment reached 6.5% and as long as inflation expectations remained below 2.5%. The dovish decision continues weighing on the greenback. We will now get to know how wide was the support given to this move, and how the Fed sees the economy.
- Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada added an impressive 59,300 new jobs in November, with a majority of full-time positions, rebounding from the weak readings in October. This unexpected surge helped push the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%. The private sector provided the major contribution to the rise in employment while public-sector jobs hardly changed. No change is expected in the number of jobs while unemployment is forecasted to rise to 7.3%.
- US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. US economy added 146,000 jobs in November according to the recent NFP report. The rise was contrary to predictions of only 89,000 job increase due to superstorm Sandy. However it is yet to be seen whether the recent hiring in retail jobs would last after the holiday season. An addition of 145,000 positions is forecasted.
- US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30. US unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years in November reaching 7.7% from, 7.9% in October. However the main reason behind this fall is an increase in the number of workers dropping out of the labor force which is not an encouraging sign for the US economy. Unemployment rate is expected to remain 7.7%.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. Economic activity in the non-manufacturing businesses edged up in November for the 35th consecutive month, reaching 54.7 from 54.2 in October, This climb indicated growth is continuing at a slightly faster rate. 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Revenue continues to be subdued. A small decline to 54.3 is predicted this time.
*All times are GMT.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
Further reading:
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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