The two day FOMC meeting will draw most of the attention this week. Will Bernanke hint anything about future rate changes? Also this week, home sales figures in the US, PMI data in Europe and important British figures will shake the market. And of course, the Iranian election crisis is still with us. Here are the main events to look out for this week.
The situation in Iran becomes more dangerous as both the regime’s leaders and the opposition leaders scaled up their tone. Also protests became more violent. The ongoing turmoil in Iran supports the US dollar. Risk aversion is the name of the game.
Now, let’s get back to normal news:
Monday, June 22nd: Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity is the first important indicator for this week. Actually, it’s published 10 minutes to midnight…After falling by 4% last time, it’s predicted to turn positive.
German Ifo Business Climate provides a strong start for the EUR/USD. Another rise is expected, to 85.1 points. Later, Jean-Claude Trichet will speak.
Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases is the only significant indicator from North America this day.
Tuesday, June 23rd: Lots of European figures today, starting with the GfK German Consumer Climate which is predicted to stay at 2.5 points. Then, French Consumer Spending is expected to slip by 0.1%.
Focus turns to European Purchasing Manager’s indices: At first, French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI are published, then the German figures, and finally the all-European numbers. All the PMI results are expected to rise, but none of them are predicted to rise above the 50 points mark.
EU Leaders expressed optimism in their summit. Will this be reflected in these figures?
In Switzerland, Trade Balance surplus is predicted to squeeze to 1.86 billion.
British BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected to rise to 29.5K. It’s hard for the British housing sector to get better.
In the US, housing is getting better – American Existing Home Sales are predicted to rise to 4.82 million.
Near the end of the day, Japanese Trade Balance is expected to turn positive after slipping last month.
Wednesday, June 24th: Current Account in Europe is expected to show a smaller deficit than last time, at 4.6 billion.
British CBI Realized Sales is a major figure for the Pound. It’s expected to remain unchanged, at -17. Inflation Report Hearings will also shake the Pound. Is inflation lifting its head? BOE Governor Mervyn King might shed some light on a speech later on.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders are expected to fall by 0.6%, while the Core figure is expected to fall by only 0.2%. Both indicators rose last month. American New Home Sales are expected to improve to 360K, following the path of Existing Home Sales.
These American figures are usually very important, but the market will be awaiting the FOMC Statement in the evening. While the Federal Funds Rate isn’t expected to move from a maximum value of 0.25%, the statement by the FOMC members is very important.
Will they see the economy recovering, and hint that an interest rate hike is close? Or will they state that the rate will stay unchanged till end of the year? The greenback will shake after the statement.
Current Account in New Zealand is expected to show a deficit, just before the day ends. For traders of the kiwi, this is important.
Thursday, June 25th: British Nationwide HPI is predicted to fall by 0.4% after rising last time. Will also British housing improve?
American Unemployment Claims are expected to stay stable, and still above 600K. The American job market has stabilized, but hasn’t significantly improved. Not yet.
American Final GDP is expected to stay with the Prelim figure, and show a drop of 5.7% in the first quarter of 2009.
Less than 24 hours after the FOMC Statement, Ben Bernanke will testify in Washington. His words will probably move the market.
New Zealand closes the day again, with the GDP for the first quarter. It’s predicted to show a contraction of 0.7%, continuing a long recession.
Just before the day ends, Tokyo Core CPI is predicted to fall by 1% in Japan, deepening Japan’s deflation.
Friday, June 26th: German Prelim CPI will be published throughout the day, and it’s expected to show a very modest rise of 0.1%.
In the US, Personal Spending is expected to get back up, and rise by 0.3%. The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to be better than the prelim printing, and rise to 69.2. It’s quite a quiet Friday, once again.
These are the major events for this week. I’ll publish daily outlooks as usual, and also special coverages on a small selection of currencies…
In the meantime, here’s a post about forex trading hours. There are times that we should stay out of the markets…
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