Forex Weekly Outlook – March 8-12

After the NFP, the upcoming week is somewhat less busy. Nevertheless, rate decision in Switzerland and New Zealand, job figures from Australia and Canada and two major American releases on Friday among other events, will provide lots of action. Here’s the weekly outlook.

On Monday and Tuesday, there are many events on the calendar, but not too many important ones. The effect of the Non-Farm Payrolls will still strongly felt at the beginning of the week, until fresh important indicators are released. Let’s start:

1. Swiss Retail Sales: Published on Monday at 8:15 GMT. Switzerland enjoys a strong and stable economy with confident consumers. Last month, sales volume jumped by 4.7%, a very strong pace. This time, a rise of 1.6% is predicted. This will have a strong impact on the Swissy as well as a collateral effect as the beginning of the week doesn’t contain too many figures.
2. British NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. NIESR is usually more accurate than other economists in understanding the economy. The upcoming release will show the growth rate for the three months that ended in February, as Britain hardly got out of recession at the end of 2009. This tends to have a long term impact on the Pound.
3. American Federal Budget Balance: Published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. It’s no secret that the US government owes a lot of money. The size of the deficit fell to more “normal” levels last month – only 40 billion. But this time, it’s predicted to surge back to 200 billion, weighing on the dollar.
4. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 20:00 GMT. New Zealand has the second highest interest rate among the major currencies, 2.5%, but it didn’t follow its neighbor Australia and didn’t raise the rates. Also now, Alan Bollard is expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged but may hint about future hikes in the RBNZ Press Conference. This decision has an impact beyond New Zealand and impacts also the Aussie.
5. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. According to the initial release, the land of the rising sun experienced a stronger growth than expected – 1.1% in Q4. This is expected to be revised to the downside – 1.0%, shaking the Japanese Yen against the dollar and all the Yen crosses
6. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. In the past four months, Australian employment figures were fantastic, beating expectations each time. The predictions remain cautious: Employment Change is expected to rise by a modest number – 15,300 and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%, after dropping from 5.5% last time.
7. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. This double-feature release in Canada and the US always triggers action in USD/CAD. The American deficit is expected to remain high at around 40 billion, while Canada is expected to turn from a deficit of 0.2 to a surplus of 0.4 billion.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Together with trade balance, the first jobless claims report after the Non-Farm Payrolls will probably show an improvement – a drop from 469K to 452K, pushing the dollar higher.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes rate decisions on the Libor rate only once a quarter. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time last year, the central bank accompanied the rate decision with a massive intervention. They now intervene all the time, not only on rate decisions.
10. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 12:00 GMT. Also Canada experienced an improving job market. Last month, the unemployment rate surprised by falling to 8.3%. This is expected to remain unchanged. The superb employment change figure showed a rise of 43,200 jobs last time. It’s expected to be followed by a gain of 17,500 jobs this time. This will rock USD/CAD and also impact the greenback elsewhere.
11. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Sales were stronger than expected in January, but the freezing month of February probably weighed on this growth in the volume of sales. A drop of 0.1% is predicted in retail sales and a drop of 0.1% in core retail sales.
12. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 15:00 GMT. According to the University of Michigan, consumer confidence has been stable in the past three months, remaining almost unchanged at a score of 73.6. A small rise to 74.3 points is expected this time. The timing of the release, close to the close of the markets, promises lots of action around this release.

That’s it for the major events this week.

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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