Forex Weekly Outlook – September 7-11 2009



After an extremely busy week, the upcoming week is more relaxed, especially for North American traders, which enjoy the Labor Day weekend. Later in the week, things warm up with rate decisions from Britain, Canada and New Zealand, and many other important indicators.

Non-Farm Payrolls, as well as a big number of other important indicators, didn’t move most currencies out of their ranges. Only AUD/USD made a breakout. What will move the markets this week? Let’s see what’s up:

Monday, September 7th: Americans and Canadians will be enjoying the Labor Day weekend. Trading will be significantly thinner, but there still are some indicators around the world.

ANZ Job Advertisements are published in Australia. In Europe, German Factory Orders are expected to continue growing, this time by 2%.

In Britain, BRC Retail Sales Monitor and RICS House Price Balance are published late in the day. The latter is expected to fall by 0.1%.

Tuesday, September 8th: Australian NAB Business Confidence starts the day.

British Manufacturing Production will draw attention, with an expected rise of 0.3%. Late in the day, Nationwide Consumer Confidence is expected to increase in Britain.

In Germany, Industrial Production is expected to turn positive and rise by 1.6%. The German economy has shown strength recently.

In Canada, Building Permits are the first major release after Labor Day. They’re expected to rise by 0.5%.

Wednesday, September 9th: Australia has many releases today – Westpac Consumer Sentiment starts, and is then followed by Home Loans (expected to fall by 1%)  and Retail Sales which are predicted to rise by 0.6%.

German Final CPI will be interesting to watch: did German prices really rise? British Trade Balance is expected to remain stable, with a deficit of 6.3 billion. At night, NIESR GDP Estimate will be interesting to follow.

Canadian Housing Starts are expected to rise modestly after disappointing last month. In the US, finally there’s an important release: the Beige Book will supply a broad view about the economy, in the ongoing debate if the recovery is real or not.

In New Zealand, the interest rate is expected to remain at 2.5%. Some traders are expecting the RBNZ to lower the Official Cash Rate, so there could surprises here. Also the RBNZ Rate Statement, which will hint future policy is important. We’ll hear more at the RBNZ Press Conference.

And just before midnight GMT, Japanese Core Machinery Orders is expected to turn negative, after rising nicely last month.

Thursday, September 10th: Australian employment figures provide a strong start for the day: Employment Change is predicted to fall by 14.7K, and the Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise from 5.8% to 5.9%. Will the Australian job market surprise again?

In Europe, French Industrial Production is expected to rise. Also France, like Germany, is ahead of the continent in recovery. Later, the ECB Monthly Bulletin will be of interest to EUR/USD traders.

The British interest rate isn’t expected to move from the historic low of 0.5%. After the surprising expansion of the Quantitative Easing program last month, the BoE could surprise again. The Pound will shake during the MPC Rate Statement.

It’s time for the double-feature trade balance, at 12:30 GMT. American Trade Balance is expected to show a deficit of 26.8 billion, while the Canadian balance is predicted to be almost almost balanced.

Half an hour later, Canadian interest rate will be published. Also here, the rock bottom Overnight Rate of 0.25% isn’t expected to be changed – not now and not until the end of the year. Loonie traders will listen to the BOC Rate Statement, which might hint about the economy, but not about rate hikes.

In the aftermath of the Non-Farm Payrolls, American Unemployment Claims are expected to ease to 555K. After many disappointments from this figure, we cannot expect a positive surprise.

Speeches by Timothy Geithner, Dennis Lockhart and Donald Kohn will also move the greenback today.

Near midnight GMT, Japan’s Final GDP is predicted to confirm the second quarter growth of 0.9%.

Friday, September 11th: British PPI Input has fallen last time, and is now expected to rise by 0.6%. Also British prices are far from rising.

In the US, Import Prices are expected to rise by 1% after falling last time. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is also expected to be on the rise and reach 67.1 points. Are American consumers becoming more optimistic?

Near the end of the day, in the twilight zone of “Friday effects”, the Federal Budget Balance is released, and is expected to show a deficit of “only” 172 billion.

That’s it for the major events this week. Check out Larry Greenberg’s outlook for next week. I’ll follow with coverages of the British Pound, the Canadian and the Australian dollars and EUR/USD.




About

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor

I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.

Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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