One day before the the historic referendum on the question of Scottish independence, all the latest 3 opinion polls show the exact same majority for a No campaign when excluding the undecideds: 52% against and 48% in favor. Given the undecideds, this is still too close to call, but the odds at the betting firms are now more heavily leaning towards a No vote, and the pound is strengthening as well.
Update: a fresh poll shows a tighter margin of 51/49%.
GBP/USD is on the move once again, making an attempt on the 1.63 level. It already touched this level on the Chinese sugar rush, but couldn’t hold on to that level after the dust settled. But now, with odds standing at 5.25 / 1.25 and one company already paying out some of the bets for a No, forex traders are gradually front running the result.
This is still very close to call, especially as it is an unprecedented event where also 16 and 17 year old youth can vote.
More on the big event:
- Scotland Referendum: Timetable for forex traders
- The case for Yes – 5 reasons why the polls could possible be totally wrong on Scotland
- Scotland Referendum: what the betting odds imply for GBP/USD
- GBP/USD could retest 2010 lows if Scotland votes to leave UK
- Latest podcast, which also includes the Scottish referendum
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