The British pound continues to slide, as GBP/USD lost about 100 points for a second straight week. The pair closed at 1.5861, its lowest weekly close since September 2013. This week’s major events are Claimant Count Change and the BoE Inflation Report. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
US Nonfarm Payrolls slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the Unemployment Rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. British PMIs were mixed and there were no surprises from the Bank of England, which left QE and interest rate levels unchanged. Which central bank will be first to raise rates? This remains an open question.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it:
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Tuesday, 00:01. This indicator is not as broad as the Retail Sales indicator, as it only measures the change in retail sales volumes in BRC shops.
- Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. The indicator is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of every release. The indicator continues to improve, and rose to 0.7% in Q2. The upward trend is expected to continue, with a forecast of a 0.9% gain for Q3.
- Claimant Count Change: Wednesday,9:30. This is one of the most important indicators and can have a significant impact on the movement of GBP/USD. Unemployment claims continue to drop, although the reading of -18.6K was much smaller than expected. The estimate for the October reading stands at -24.9 thousand. The Unemployment Rate is expected to dip to 5.9%.
- CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 10:00. This is a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The index improved to 0.4% in the September reading.
- BoE Inflation Report: Wednesday, 10:30. The markets will be all ears as the BoE releases its inflation report, followed by a press conference with Governor Carney. Traders should treat this event as a market-mover. Carney and his colleagues may release some hints about the timing of the rate hike, whch is due in 2015, but ranges between spring and autumn.
- RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, 00:01. This indicator helps analysts track inflation in the UK housing sector. The index has been falling, as it dropped to 30% last month. The downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 25%.
- 10-year Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. The yield on 10-year government bonds has been dropping, and fell to 2.15% at the last auction. If this trend continues, we could see the yield slip below the 2.0% level.
- Construction Output: Friday, 9:30. This indicator helps gauge the health of the construction sector. The indicator slid 3.5% in August, its first decline in three months. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the September release, with a forecast of 3.7%.
* All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5971 and touched a high of 1.6022. The pair then reversed directions and touched a low of 1.5789, as support held fast at 1.5746 (discussed last week). GBP closed the week at 1.5861.
Live chart of GBP/USD:
[do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines from top to bottom
We start with resistance at 1.6465, which was the bottom in March. Further below, the round number of 1.64 is providing resistance.
1.6310 is next. This line was a cushion during January.
1.6250 continues to be a strong resistance line.
1.6131 was tested as the pair showed strength early in the week before retracting.
1.6006 continues to see action as this line was tested early in the week. It has strengthened in resistance as the pound registered sharp losses.
1.5909, which had provided support since November 2013, has switched to a resistance role. It is a weak line which could see action early in the week.
Next is 1.5746, which held firm as the pound posted sharp losses.
1.5628 has remained intact since September 2013. 1.5496 is next.
1.5314 is the final line for now. It has held as support since May 2013.
I am bearish on GBP/USD.
With QE finally behind us, the focus shifts to an interest rate hike. The US economy continues to improve and wages could move upwards, which will put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. The pound could have a sharp reaction to this week’s UK employment data and the BoE Inflation Report.
In our latest podcast, we run down the ECB, talk about the huge Japanese move, preview the UK and also talk about Brazil:
Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
Share
