While pollsters are crunching the numbers and trying to understand the voting intentions of Greeks on the January 25th elections, the banks are feeling a credit crunch.
Here are some recent numbers including the number 3: a third bailout is on the cards now for Greece.
- €7 billion have been withdrawn so far from banks since the crisis began. Around €3 billion were withdrawn in December and the move accelerated in early January.
- 2 Greek banks have asked to use the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) tool. These are Eurobank and Alpha Bank. There are unconfirmed reports about two additional banks tapping this tool. The moves are currently described as “precautionary”.
- €60 million of daily deposit outflows are estimated now. Around one week ago, the government denied bank run fears and we asked: Never believe a rumor until it’s officially denied? While caution is warranted with the term “bank run”, there is undoubtedly increased withdrawing activity.
- 60,000 – 65,000 Greeks have loans in Swiss francs and have seen repayment costs jump 15% due to the SNBomb.
- 4 new opinion polls show a lead of between 2.2% to 4.7% for opposition SYRIZA over incumbent New Democracy. Metron Analysis, which shows seats in parliament, gives SYRIZA 147 seats against 85 for ND, short of an absolute majority for Tsipras and in line with the previous 7 polls. Fears could bring voters back to the ruling government, despite years of austerity.
- 3: A third bailout for Greece is now on the cards. It could be just a temporary extension of the current program rather than a comprehensive program. It is important to remember that Greece will likely be excluded from the ECB’s upcoming QE program. The current program ends at the end of February.
In our latest podcast we analyze the SNBomb, do an ECB Preview, discuss US wages, dive into Saudi costs and the look at the Aussie
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