The Eurogroup convenes for the first time after Tsipras was returned as PM and yet another can kicking event seems to be on the cards.
The latest reports aren’t optimistic, but this seems inevitable with a deal that didn’t have many chances from the outset.
Greece’s creditors are just two at the moment: the European Commission and the European Central Bank. Yet without the IMF, it is basically Germany that sets the tone.
The IMF hasn’t signed up to the third bailout as it still insists on some form of debt relief for Greece. Otherwise, and as everybody knows, the debt is just unsustainable. It has already said this over and over again, with talk about the debt to GDP ratio ballooning to 200% and fresh talk about a debt cut worth €100 billion.
The German parliament was promised that the IMF will eventually come on board, but this doesn’t seem to be getting closer.
In the meantime, the known trick is set to be used once again: extend and pretend. Talking about debt was supposed to come after the first review. This review was set to be concluded sometime in October or November.
However, the fresh reports talk about “not before December” and Greece is blamed for only implementing a third of needed reforms. Greece may be partially culpable, but it seems that Germany is taking its sweet time in postponing a discussion about the big elephant in the room: debt relief for Greece. This means a confrontation with the IMF.
The Greek issues do not impact the euro lately, but this story is never too far away and the next crisis is around the corner.
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