Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, joined today’s Tip TV Finance Show to speak on central banks, the EUR carry trade, Fed rate hike, and the Bank of Japan.
Central Banks on the forefront of people’s minds
Foley comments how central banks remain the main theme for the markets. She believes that the central banks are running out of ammunition.
On the EUR, she mentions how the improved risk appetite in October would have made carry trade attractive.
Divergence trade back on with a vengeance?
Foley explains that in order for divergence to work, carry trade should be working, and the market needs to be short the EUR. She further highlights the need to an alleviated risk appetite for this divergence to work, and adds that October has seen improvement in risk appetite, with markets becoming less worried about China than before.
Foley says that she’s not sure whether the market will go with gusto in the carry trade, hence the EUR won’t likely go down with a vengeance.
EUR/USD: Parity?
Foley explains that Rabobank’s in house team doesn’t forecasts a December rate hike, and hence she doesn’t remain in favour of a parity move in EUR/USD.
Adding further on EUR/USD, she says the market perception on US rates has changed, with people now believing that the liftoff won’t be aggressive, this limits the potential for aggressive USD climb.
Bank of Japan: QQE causing worry on the JGB market
On the Yen, Foley believes that the concerns on China is going to come back to Japan. She further says that the BoJ policy statement and member views doesn’t say anything about a rate cut. BoJ’s effective exchange rate remains a lowest levels, and we are at the point that their QEE program is causing worry about the dynamics of the JGB market.
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