Forex Daily Outlook – March 4th 2010
Tension rises in the forex market as the calendar is very busy today. The highlights are rate decisions in Europe and Britain, plus a busy American calendar. Let’s see what’s awaiting us today.
Tension also comes from a possible resolution to the Greek crisis (although fragile), and the hints towards the big event on Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, which currently have low expectations. So, let’s start review. Take a deep breath:
After a rate hike and a strong GDP result, Australia receives the last major release today: Trade Balance. Australia’s deficit is predicted to squeeze from 2.25 billion to 1.57 billion, showing a stronger economy.
On the other side of the day, AIG Construction Index will probably remain stable. Only a big surprise will shake the Aussie. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.
British and European rate decisions
In Europe, the revised version of GDP for Q4 is expected to confirm the very slow growth – 0.1%. This figure usually comes out as expected. So, it will merely be a prelude for the rate decision.
The president of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1%. There’s no reason whatsoever for a surprise, but the announcement of the European Minimum Bid Rate always shakes the markets. In recent days, there are hopes for a bailout program for Greece, so this will probably be the focus of the ECB Press Conference that Trichet will hold.
For more on the Euro, check out my EUR/USD forecast, and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
Also the British interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. But BOE governor Mervyn King can hurt sterling in another way. Along with the Official Bank Rate, also the fate of the Quantitative Easing program will be set. This program, also called Asset Purchase Facility, is meant to increase liquidity by buying bonds – spilling pounds. The program ran out of money, but King didn’t rule out renewing it. He isn’t expected to do it, but a surprise sure is possible.
It’s also important to notice the exact wording of the MPC Rate Statement, which may indicate future policy about the interest rate (probably nothing) or the QE program.
For more on the beaten British Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.
Canadian strength to continue?
In Canada, after the growth rate was better than expected and the wording of the rate statement was OK, two major releases are due today. Building Permits are expected to rise by 1% after a 2.4% jump last time.
The second moving event for the loonie is Ivey PMI, which is predicted to rise from 50.8 to 56 points, recovering from a drop last month.
Towards the end of the day, the Canadian government will release the Annual Budget Release. This will cause lots of volatility for the Canadian dollar. Traders will check out the wording of the economic forecasts that are part of the budget.
USD/CAD made a break below the 1.04 level, and is now range-trading between 1.02 and 1.04. For more on the lonie, read the Canadian dollar forecast.
Busy American calendar
In the US, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls showed a loss of 20K jobs, within expectations. Today we have the last job indicator before the NFP – Unemployment Claims. They’re expected to drop to 472K after jumping to 496K last week.
Pending Home Sales are predicted to rise by 1.4%, following last month’s 1% rise – a continuation of the positive and steady trend. At the same time, Factory Orders are expected to make the same upwards move. Both indicators should push the dollar higher.
Apart from economic indicators, we also have two speeches from FOMC member James Bullard. He had a role in easing the effect of Bernanke’s mini-rate hike.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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GBP/USD Outlook – March 1-5 2010
The Pound lost another technical level and looks down. The upcoming week is very busy, with eight important events, with the rate decision being the climax. Here’s the weekly outlook for the British events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
BOE governor Mervyn King is [...]
Forex Weekly Outlook – March 1-5 2010
The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.
The Non-Farm Payrolls will definitely attract more and more attention and cause [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – February 4th 2010
Very busy day ahead: rate decisions in Britain and Europe are the highlights in a crowded calendar, one day before the Non-Farm Payrolls.
Things are shaky in the forex market. The dollar weakened during the week but then erased the losses after the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls was good. The major pair, EUR/USD is currently holding steady. [...]
Forex Weekly Outlook – February 1-5 2010
After the surprising American GDP, the first week of February is loaded with major events: rate decisions from Britain, Europe and Australia, job figures from Canada, New Zealand and the US – the almighty Non-Farm Payrolls. Here’s an outlook for the major events of the week.
I’m trying a new format of the weekly outlook this [...]
GBP/USD Outlook – February 1-5 2010
Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: British Pound Forecast
British growth was dwarfed by the American one, and the Pound ended the week lower. The upcoming week provides lots of important releases, with an interesting rate hike being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in the [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – January 7th 2010
The focus shifts to Britain today that receives a rate decision. There are lots of other important events worldwide. Let’s see what’s up today:
Anticipation towards the Non-Farm Payrolls prevents significant breakouts. The markets are tense towards the release on Friday.
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