Forex Daily Outlook – March 16th 2010
The week opened with dollar strength on a rather light calendar. Today is already very bust: major releases in Europe are followed by the rate decision in the US: will Bernanke send new signals? Here’s the daily outlook.
The strong volatility seen on Monday’s trading was also influenced by the different time difference between Europe and North America. This will accompany us for two more weeks.
Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at the beginning of the day. We’ll see how the members see the next decisions: more rate hikes? A pause?
On the other side of the day, the MI Leading Index will give an overview of the Australian’s economy. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
In Switzerland, the SECO Economic Forecasts might shake the currency after it strengthened significantly yesterday. An intervention by the central bank can happen anytime.
In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to drop once again, from 45.1 to 43.5, continuing the trend in the past months. Also the all-European sentiment is released at the same time, but it’s considered less accurate than the German one.
At the same time, we’ll get a look at Europe’s inflation: CPI is expected to confirm the initial read of a year-over-year rise of 0.9%. Core CPI will probably be confirmed at 0.8%.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast, and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
In Britain, CB Leading Index will probably edge up, following last month’s small rise. Later in Britain, MPC member Charles Bean will make a public appearance, the first out of a long list of speakers this week.
Read more on the Pound at the GBP/USD forecast.
In Canada, the quarterly Labor Productivity is expected to rise by 0.7% after a drop of 0.3% last quarter. Remember that a lower number is better for the currency.
Also in Canada, Manufacturing Sales are predicted to rise by 0.7%, less than last month’s 1.6% rise. For more on the loonie, struggling around 1.02, read the USD/CAD forecast.
In the US, Building Permits are expected tick down from 620K to 610K. Also in the same sector, Housing Starts are predicted to edge down as well – from 590K to 570K.
Import Prices are expected to drop by 0.1%, after jumping by 1.4% last month. Just before Ben Bernanke takes the stage, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will speak as well – about the budget. This may move currencies as well.
At 18:15 GMT, an hour earlier than usual for Europeans, a new Federal Funds rate will be announced in the US. It isn’t expected to move from the rock bottom figure of 0.25%. As usual, every word of the FOMC Statement will be closely analyzed and will shake the markets before and after the release, possibly for many hours.
Ben Bernanke made a small move by raising the discount rate. Another member wants to remove the words “extended period of time” concerning the regular rate. Will we see a different statement this time?
Just before the end of the day, Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity is due. It’s expected to rise by 1.3%, hours before the Japanese rate decision in the following day.
That’s it. Happy forex trading!
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Forex Daily Outlook – March 15th 2010
After the dollar retreated last week, Monday opens with many US releases. TIC Long-Term Purchases will probably shake the market, among other events. Let’s see what’s up for today:
In Australia, a speech by Malcolm Edey, RBA assistant governor, can move the markets very early in the week. This speech comes a day before the meeting [...]
AUD/USD Outlook – March 15-19
The Aussie reached higher ground this week. The upcoming week consists of the meeting minutes of the last rate decision and a few more events. Here’s an outlook for Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
This time, employment figures weren’t outstanding, only OK, [...]
AUD/USD Strong After Job Figures
Despite unexciting job figures from Australia, the Aussie held the higher range it broke to earlier this week. The strength continues. Here’s an update on AUD/USD.
Only 200 jobs were gained in Australia in the month of February. This fell short of expectations that stood on 15,700 jobs. Australia’s Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.3%, exactly [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – March 11th 2010
The calendar is crowded today with major releases: Australian jobs, a rate decision in Switzerland and important figures in the US are the highlights today. Let’s see what’s up.
As seen in the Non-Farm Payrolls and also beforehand, the commodity currencies continue to show strength while the Euro and the Pound are weak. This will probably [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – March 9th 2010
The dollar gained back some of the losses amid a light calendar. Also today, there aren’t any huge events, but there are some indicators that will move currencies. Let’s see what’s up for today.
British BRC Retail Sales Monitor began the day with a rise of 2.2%. This can hint about the official retail sales figure. [...]
AUD/USD Breaking to Higher Ground
The market took its time to digest last week’s good Australian news, but now it finally made the break above the stubborn resistance line. Update on this strong currency.
AUD/USD finally broke above the stubborn resistance line of 0.9090 for the first time after 6 weeks. The pair currently trades at 0.9130, settling above the line.
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