Forex Crunch » Barack Obama

Dollar Stronger Under Obama

Yohay — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:17:12 +0000

The US dollar performed in a better manner under US president Barack Obama, than his predecessor, George W. Bush.

Supporters of Obama claim that his policies helped the nation recover from a horrible economic crisis, while his opponents claim that his policies significantly slowed the recovery. The numbers will not persuade either side, but they are still quite interesting to examine.

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Forex Daily Outlook January 25 2012

anat — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 02:44:14 +0000

FOMC Statement in the US and MPC Meeting Minutes in the UK are the main events today. Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meetings – Day 1, this time is held in Davos for Bankers, Political, trade & finance Ministers and Commercial leaders from around 90 countries. Can influent market volatility.

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Dithering has a price

Yohay — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 07:30:51 +0000

After yet another weekend gab-fest by European leaders which generated a lot of opinion but no real action, the euro was under renewed assault on the first day of the new week. Evident once again was more contrasting opinions from various European officials ahead of last night’s critical conference call between Greece and their creditors. ECB Governing Council member Weidman was particularly circumspect, claiming that the planned EFSF expansion created the wrong incentives for those countries receiving aid to rectify their poor national balance sheets, and that from his perspective there were few signs of either a more co-ordinated fiscal policy or a fiscal union.

Quite rightly, Weidman opined that the July 21 agreement on the EFSF was a further step towards joint liability without any commensurate strengthening of national fiscal affairs. The single currency slipped again overnight after S&P announced that they were lowering Italy’s credit rating from A+ to A, with a negative outlook. Amongst their concerns, S&P cited Italy’s enormous debt burden, a ‘fragile’ government and poor growth prospects. Against the backdrop of renewed risk repulsion, the EUR is back at 1.36, the Aussie is below 1.02, the DAX lost another 3%, and 10yr Bund yields were another 12bp lower at 1.75%.

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Obama deploys fiscal firepower

Yohay — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 08:53:45 +0000

US President Obama presented a package of measures last night that was larger than expected and aimed at restoring some confidence in the flagging US economy. The USD 450bln plan emphasised tax cuts, as well as an infrastructure spending bank with USD 80bln of firepower.

This was more a fiscal stimulus plan, rather than a few measure to support the jobs market that was anticipated ahead of the event. It’s a measure of the shift that is occurring right now, away from monetary policy and back onto governments as the central bank toolbox looks somewhat bare.

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EUR/USD Sep. 8 – Consolidating on Low Ground Before Trichet

Yohay — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 08:45:43 +0000

Euro dollar is now getting comfortable in a lower range, still enjoying the German court decision. But this isn’t likely to last long, as the market awaits the rate decision and the press conference by ECB president Trichet. Also in the US, many important indicators are released, with the head of the central bank speaking as well.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

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EUR/USD July 26 – Breaking Long Term Resistance on Dollar’s Fall

Yohay — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:22:40 +0000

Euro dollar made a break above long term downtrend resistance as the dollar loses ground across the board. The public disagreement between the political sides in Washington got the markets selling off the dollar, also against the euro, and despite European worries. We have quite a few US indicators today. Where will it go?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

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US Debt Ceiling: Three Ways This Can Unfold

Yohay — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 10:33:55 +0000

Yet another effort to get “grand bargain” on the cutting the US deficit and raising the debt ceiling ended in break up. Each side is blaming the other, and the clock is ticking towards August 2nd. Or is it really ticking? Here are three ways this could unfold.

GOP leader John Boehner broke talks with US president Barack Obama late on Friday, after the markets closed. If this is the state of things when markets open on Monday, the dollar is set to decline. Washington is set to be very active over the weekend, and things can change afterwards as well.

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US debt talks enter the home straight

Yohay — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 09:36:27 +0000

It is the progressive intensification of the rhetoric over recent days that offers the biggest clue that the impasse over the debt limit and fiscal policy will likely be resolved quite soon. Notwithstanding reports that yesterday’s talks ended badly, the President’s suggestion that he may summon some Congressional leaders to the White House this weekend signifies that he wants this resolved quite quickly.

This urgency is both commendable and necessary, as conveyed by Moody’s last night when it delivered on its previous warning that it would place the US on review for possible downgrade if there was no deal in place on the debt limit by mid-July.

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Debt Ceiling: Afghanistan and Iraq Could Provide Solutions

Yohay — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 17:17:56 +0000

Democrats and Republicans aren’t able to reach an agreement on budget adjustments that would pave the way for raising the debt ceiling, which is set to be passed on August 2nd.

Pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan could provide a solution that would allow for significant budget cuts. Leveraging the debt ceiling crisis and using economic reasoning to make such a bold move would have huge benefits. Is Obama brave enough to offer such a dramatic move?

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Obama’s fiscal epiphany unlikely to reverse dollar downtrend

Yohay — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 10:00:58 +0000

The news that President Obama’s address to the nation today will outline a more comprehensive plan for dealing with the country’s chronic fiscal obesity has failed to turn the tide of negativity towards the greenback over recent days. Encouragingly, the White House seems to be finally embracing the need for drastic policy action, including meaningful reductions in healthcare and defence costs and increased taxes. For its part, the GOP has made it clear that proper fiscal surgery is required before it can justify voting for an increase in the $14.13trln government debt limit, a ceiling that looks set to be reached in the next 4-8 weeks. Some senior Senate Republicans have been urging the President to sign up to a goal of chopping the deficit by $4trln over the next decade, in an endeavour to stabilise the inexorable rise in government debt over recent years.

Guest post by FXPro

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