In the US Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, The U.S. manufacturers may need to speed up production based on the anticipated increase in orders for durable goods by up to 0.9% in June, compared with the 0.6% decline in May. 

Later in the US, Crude Oil Inventories, the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week decreases by 1 million and influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods.

Finally in the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Beige Book, Anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 Federal Reserve banks regarding local economic conditions in their district;, traders will watch closely if the Beige Book’s assessment on the economy confirms the Fed Chairman’s “unusually uncertain” economic outlook. 

In Europe, German Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of goods and services purchased by consumers increased by 1%, Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Bank of England (BOE); Governor Mervyn King testifies, along with BOE MPC Members Charles Bean, Paul Fisher, David Miles, and Andrew Sentance on monetary policy and financial stability before the Treasury Select Committee, in London, and influence the nation’s currency.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Consumer Price Index (CPI) the price of goods and services purchased by consumers increased by 1%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. And the Trimmed Mean CPI the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items is stabilized on 0.8%.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ); Interest Rate Statement, The recent strengthening of the Kiwi against the U.S. dollar and other lower-yielding currencies should not come as a surprise since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely-anticipated to follow the footsteps of the Bank of Canada and deliver another 0.25% interest rate hike, bringing the official cash rate in New Zealand to 3.0%.

Later in New Zealand, NBNZ Business Confidence Survey of about 1,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook and measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, indicates optimism and an early signal of future economic activity.

More in New Zealand, Official Cash Rate, the Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks, Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future, increased up to 3%.

Finally in New Zealand Trade Balance, the Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month, droops down from 814M to 359M, but indicates that more goods were exported than imported  and export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;

In Japan, Retail Sales, the total value of sales at the retail level; increases by 0.5% – the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Friday’s European stress tests will still be felt in the markets at the start of the new week. Will the weak US figures continue hurting the dollar? Or is it going to change?

1. American New Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Sales of new homes are very dependent on government stimulus, as we’ve seen in recent releases. From a leap to 446K to months ago, the number of new sales (annualized) dropped to 300K last month, hurting the dollar. A significant rise is expected this time.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This major survey of 5,000 people always shakes the markets. After reaching 63.3 points two months ago, the indicator plunged to 52.9 last month – showing the fear of a double-dip recession. A small recovery is expected this time.
3. US Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The 12 regional districts of the Federal Reserve team to produce economic analysis which precedes the FOMC meeting two weeks later. We’ll get to see how the economy is doing, and a hint towards the next decision. Will a fear of a double-tip recession be expressed in the Beige Book?
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Manufacturing has been quite unstable in recent months – a drop of 1.3% was followed by a leap of 3% and then by a drop of 0. 6% last month. Also the core figure, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, hasn’t been much more stable. This event always shakes the markets. A significant rise is necessary for the dollar to gain.
5. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard will probably raise the rates for a second time in a row, from the current rate of 2.75% to 3%. While inflation isn’t going wild in New Zealand, the economy is doing well, prompting another hike now. The kiwi and Aussie will move on the rate decision as well as the prospects for future moves.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. A dip to 429K two weeks ago didn’t impress the markets, as it was disregarded as an error. Jobless claims have proved to be the best indicator towards the Non-Farm Payrolls, and shakes the currency markets every week.
7. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s high unemployment rate of 10% is a big burden on the Euro. This rate hardly changed in the past 6 months, and it isn’t expected to change materially now. A drop to 9.7% or lower will boost the Euro, but this isn’t likely.
8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This highly regarded composite index reflects the great state of the Swiss economy quite well. After reaching a multi-year high score of 2.25 its expected to tick down, but if it doesn’t fall too much, the Swissy will still enjoy it.
9. Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP disappointed last month by remaining unchanged, after a great first quarter. But the overall situation in Canada is excellent, so this GDP release should be strong, and can counter a strong GDP release in US happening at the exact same time.
10. US Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the first release of GDP for the second quarter of 2010. After an excellent end to 2009 (growth of 5.6%), the first quarter was slow (2.7%) and caused serious fears of a double dip recession. This initial release has a strong impact, but it’s not always accurate – last quarter’s number was gradually revised downwards from 3.5% to 2.7%. Anyway, the markets are going to rock.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for specific currency coverages.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..

In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke leads to heavy market volatility when delivering 2 parts testimony about the federal budget & Economic and Financial conditions at the House Budget Committee, in Washington DC. And supply interest rate clues when he delivers a speech titled “From Recession to Recovery” at the Forum on Employment Trends and Workforce Development Strategies at the Federal Reserve Bank, in Richmond.

More in the US, Crude Oil Inventories is about to rise by 0.8 Million, it measures the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week and affects inflation.

Finally in the US, an 8 times per year analysis meeting (2 weeks before each FOMC), that help make the next decision on interest rates.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

Moving to Great Britain, Trade Balance that Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month shows a positive impact on exported goods with a rise of 0.5 Billion.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Dwelling Finance Commitments during the reported month, measures the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes, showing a rise of 1.5%.

More in Australia, Wholesale Inventories that is Released monthly and  Measures the Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers is about to rise by 2% and impact on the future business spending.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), scheduled 8 times per year and measures the interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks; shows a rise of 0.25%.

The RBNZ heals a 2 parts Press Conference of about 30 minutes long and create heavy market volatility. And include details on how they will achieve their inflation targets, formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years, by releasing the RBNZ Rate & Monetary Policy Statements.

In Japan, the Final GDP, released quarterly, a primary gauge of the economy’s health that measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy is about to rise by 0.1%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

European news has been slower in the past week, with no major credit downgrades or depressing statements. But the crisis is far from over. Traders understand that the austerity measures that flood the continent are a serious damage to growth. These worries can be reflected in the European rate decision. OK, let’s begin:

1. Ben Bernanke talks: First appearance due on Tuesday at midnight GMT, at a conference in Washington; the second event is an official testimony in front of the House Budget Committee on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT, and the last one is later that day, at 20:00 GMT, at a conference in Richmond. Almost every public appearance provides some headlines that move the markets. With questions expected in most events and the growing pressure to raise the rates, it will interesting to see what wording Bernanke will use, and what delicate balance he’ll find behind hope of recovery and worries about Europe.
2. American Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting that decides on the rates, this report about the current economic conditions will shed some light on the state of the US economy, and might provide hints for the rate decision, now that some members are expressing the need to raise the rates.
3. New Zealand Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. The RBNZ will probably be the third Western central bank to raise the rates. In his previous rate decision, Alan Bollard hinted about raising the rates. Fundamentals in New Zealand have been stabilizing. While they haven’t been superb, this could be enough to follow Australia and Canada and raise the Official Cash Rate from 2.5% to 2.75%. It’s important to notice the rate statement that accompanies the event.
4. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. More bad news is expected in Japan after the resignation of the government. GDP for the first quarter will probably be revised to the downside – from 1.2% to 1.1%, pushing the yen lower.
5. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.  Australia continues to enjoy economic growth and has a good outlook for the future. This will probably be reflected in another gain in jobs. Australian employment change is expected to rise by 16K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4% – lower than most countries.
6. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Mervyn King, head of the BoE continues to face a dilemma – on one hand, inflation continues to pick up, making a rate hike necessary, but the fragile state of economy, that hardly emerged from the recession, means leaving the stimulus measures unchanged. King dismissed inflation so far. Consensus is for another month of unchanged rates – 0.5%. It’s important to watch the MPC Rate Statement. Any concern about inflation could boost the Pound.
7. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet of the ECB faces a similar problem, but in Europe the inflation is softer and the economic issues are harder, making it easier for him to leave the European Minimum Bid Rate unchanged. There are even calls for lowering the 1% interest rate. His words regarding the debt issues and the economy in general at the press conference (45 minutes later) will also shake the markets.
8. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release of the trade balance in both countries always shakes USD/CAD. The Canadian surplus is expected to rise to 0.7 billion, while the American deficit is expected to remain almost unchanged around 40 billion.
9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The first release of jobless claims after the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to be rather stable – a drop from 453K to 447K, still within the same range that this weekly indicator showed us in recent months.
10. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Sales volume is advancing steadily. The pace of growth is expected to ease this time, from 0.4% last month to 0.2% this time. Also core retail sales, which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve, are predicted to slow to 0.1% from 0.4% last month.
11. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT. The last event of the week is very important – consumer sentiment is expected to edge back up from 73.6 to 74.9, indicating that the drop we saw recently was only temporary. The university of Michigan publishes this preliminary report close to the market’s close, in a very volatile timing.

That’s it for the major events for this week. Specific currency updates will follow.

Further reading:

• For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

EUR/USD continues to trade above the gap. While this is a sign of strength, the resolution to the Greek crisis is not fully realized, and the implications to the other countries could still weigh on the Euro. OK, let’s start the review:

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment starts the day. After a strong start to the week, the Aussie is struggling again.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will speak at a conference in Tokyo, and he can shake the Yen – possibly sending it lower.

European Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.2% following a rise of 1.7% last month.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs‘ latest analysis.

Many American figures

American retail sales are expected to make a move forward: a rise of 1.1% will probably follow last month’s 0.3% rise. Core retail sales, which are no less important, are expected to rise by 0.5%, less than last month’s rise.

At the same time, consumer prices are predicted to provide another month of boredom – a rise of 0.1% is expected to follow last month’s stagnation. Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1%, the same as last month.

Later in the US, Business Inventories are predicted to rise by 0.3% after being unchanged last month. At the same time, 14:00 GMT, Ben Bernanke will begin his testimony in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. If he makes some remarks about the economy in general, or the Chinese yuan, the markets will move.

Later in the US, the Beige Book will give an overview of the American economy, showing us what the Federal Reserve sees. Also note a speech by FOMC member Sandra Pianalto.

Just before the day ends, British Nationwide Consumer Confidence, a figure delayed from last week, is predicted to edge up from 80 to 81 points.

For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The low expectations for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls are favorable for the dollar. Here’s my Non-Farm Payrolls preview. Let’s start today’s review:

British Nationwide Consumer Confidence starts the day with an expected drop of confidence to 71 points, after reaching a peak at 73. Traders lose confidence in the Pound.

Later in Britain, the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector  will complete the series of PMI releases with an expected rise to 55 points.

For more on the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, GDP is released one day after the rate hike. After a disappointing growth rate of 0.2% in Q3, a much faster growth is predicted now 0.9%. The Aussie was left unexcited by the rate decision. Will it move after the GDP release?

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Average Cash Earnings are predicted to fall by 1.2% on a yearly basis, less than last time. On the other side of the day, quarterly Capital Spending is predicted to show a drop of 18.1% (annually). The Japanese yen is rather stable.

In Europe, German Retail Sales will probably drop by 0.5% after rising last month. Later, the all-European retail sales are predicted to drop as well, by 0.3%.

EUR/USD is supported by 1.3423. This is a critical line. For more on the Euro, read Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis and my EUR/USD forecast.

In the US, two job indicators are released: Challenger Job Cuts and the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls. The latter, ADP NFP, is expected to show a loss of 13,000, slightly better than last month’s loss of 22K. ADP doesn’t always correctly predict the outcome of the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Later in the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 50.5 to 51. This complements Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI which is doing better.

The American events aren’t over: the Beige Book will give a wide overview on the American economy and can impact the expectations for the FOMC meeting later in the month. Also note a speech by FOMC member Eric Rosengren. He might give some hints about future policy as well.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

. It’s free.

The Non-Farm Payrolls will definitely attract more and more attention and cause more tension as the week proceeds. Remember to be very careful with trading this event. Check out my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading. OK, let’s start the outlook:

1. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. One of biggest burdens on Europe is unemployment rate, standing at 10%, double digits, for two months. In Spain, the number reaches 20%. A drop in this figure is essential for moving the interest rate, but it will probably take the other direction and rise to 10.1%
2. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly GDP has posted three positive months, with the last print being better than expected 0.4%. The upcoming release is expected to show another 0.4% rise and completes the data for Q4 of 2009 and should provide another boost for the Canadian dollar.
3. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 15:00 GMT. This important purchasing managers’ index has been on the rise and jumped up to 58.4 points last month, significantly better than expected. It’s now predicted to ease to 57.9 points.
4. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. After last month’s disappointing decision not to raise the rates, there have been different hints about the upcoming decision, most of them leading to a fourth rate hike, to 4%. This should help the Australian dollar, that was hurt by risk aversion trading.
5. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 06:45 GMT. Switzerland was relived of 3 quarters of contraction in Q3 of 2009, when the economy grew by 0.3%. This stable recovery is expected to continue and push the Swissy upwards, despite the central bank’s effort to bring it down.
6. Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The BOC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and again, the focus will be on the rate statement. The BOC was very clear about the timing – June 2010. Some expected a declaration about an earlier move, but this didn’t happen in previous decisions. Will it happen this time?
7. American Beige Book: Published on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting which decides on rates, this overview of the economy is released to the public. This could provide a hint about the next decision, or the next moves by the Fed, such as the recent surprising mini rate hike.
8. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy enjoyed an improving job market throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, and this should be reflected in the GDP as well, showing the strength of the Australian economy. Q3 was disappointing, with a small growth rate of 0.2%. A strong growth rate of 0.9% is now expected.
9. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. This release always shakes the markets, as it’s sometimes considered to be a strong indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Last month it showed a loss of only 22K jobs, better than expected – but the Non-Farm Payrolls were worse than expected. So this figure should be handled with care. It’s expected to show a small drop of 9K.
10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. In the non-manufacturing sectors, the situation isn’t as good as in manufacturing. ISM showed a score of only 50.5 points, hardly above the critical 50 point mark that indicates economic expansion. This figure fell short of expectations in the past four months. A small rise to 51 is expected.
11. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Mervyn King hurts the Pound every week. This time, his chance will come at the decision about the Official Bank Rate which will probably stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program (Asset Purchase Facility) isn’t predicted to move from the 200 billion pound already allocated to it, but there might be hints about its renewal.
12. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Just 45 minutes after the British decision, Jean-Claude Trichet’s ECB will announce the European Minimum Bid Rate. Also here, no changes are expected, but the complementary ECB Press Conference will supply lots of action. The Greek crisis will still be in the limelight.
13. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Providing the last hint about the Non-Farm Payrolls, this weekly release is expected to show some improvement after last week’s disappointing figure – a rise to 496K, a number not seen in a long time. It’s expected to drop back to 474K.
14. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This figure returned to stability last month, rising by 1%, but this time it’s predicted to fall again as the housing sector continues to suffer, as we see in the new and existing home sales numbers. A rise of 1.6% is expected.
15. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. After two more months of negative numbers, the king of forex, the predictions now turned negative. Last month’s releases were confusing, as 20K jobs were lost, but the unemployment rate dropped significantly from 10% to 9.7%. Will it be confusing again? Or will we see finally see good numbers? This event will impact forex trading before and after the event, for quite some time. Current expectations are for another loss of jobs: 35,000. Also the unemployment rate is expected to be bad, edging up to 9.8%.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages. Have a great week!

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

British Manufacturing Production is expected to rise by 0.3% after being unchanged last month. This release will shake the Pound, that is struggling.

Later in Britain, the NIESR institute will release their monthly GDP estimate. In this release they’ll cover the whole fourth quarter and they’ll give an early unofficial indication if Britain is out of recession. For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

In the US, the Beige Book is expected to bring some choppy trading when it provides an overview of the American economy. Also note the Federal Budget Balance which is expected to show a smaller deficit this month.

Kiwi traders, notice the Building Consents which showed strong growth last month. This figure will probably drop this time.

In Japan, Core Machinery Orders are expected to rise by 0.3% after dropping by 4.5% last month. The Yen is currently on the rise.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

American Non-Farm Payrolls, the most important indicator, disappointed by posting 85,000 job losses. Still, there was one point of light – last month’s figure was revised to a gain jobs, the first in two years. All in all, the dollar, was hurt, but didn’t lose significant technical barriers. OK, let’s start with the new week:

Monday, January 11th: Swiss retail sales are the first major event of the day. French Industrial Production is expected to help the Euro.

In Canada, Housing Starts and Building Permits are to shake USD/CAD, after the employment report in Canada was weak. Most currencies will still trade by the Non-Farm Payrolls on this day.

Tuesday, January 12th: Australian Home Loans are an important release for Aussie traders. They’re expected to fall.

British Trade Balance is predicted to improve, but the Pound will need much more. Last week’s rate decision didn’t help the Pound.

Double feature Trade Balance in Canada and in the US is expected to show a higher American deficit and a higher Canadian surplus – pushing USD/CAD lower.

Wednesday, January 13th: British Manufacturing Production is expected to rise after a disappointment last time. The more interesting release in Britain is the NIESR GDP Estimate, which has proven accurate in the past. Did British recession finally end in Q4?

European Industrial Production is expected to rise after dropping last month. Also note French CPI.

The American Beige Book will give a broad look at the US economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Budget is expected to show a smaller deficit.

Japanese Core Machinery Orders are expected to recover from last month’s blow – a drop of 4.5%. Kiwi traders: notice the Building Consents published late in the evening.

Thursday, January 14th: Australian employment figures are predicted to be mixed – job gains on one hand and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.8% on the other hand. Australia enjoyed good numbers last week.

Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. European Minimum Bid Rate is predicted to remain at 1%. Future prospects for a rate hike might be proposed: European inflation has picked finally picked up. On the other hand, European Unemployment Rate reached 10% – making a rate hike unlikely, at least until there’s improvement in the job market.

American Retail Sales posted nice gains last month, and pushed the US dollar higher. They’re now expected to rise but in a more moderate pace: 0.4% for Retail Sales and 0.3% for Core Retail Sales.

American Unemployment Claims are expected to remain almost unchanged after improving in recent weeks. Also note American Import Prices and Business Inventories. Both figures aren’t expected to move.

Friday, January 15th: Final European inflation numbers are due in Europe – where CPI and Core CPI are expected to reach a healthy 0.9% and 1% (respectively, annualized). These figures are based on the preliminary releases.

On the other side of the Atlantic, American CPI is predicted to edge up by 0.2% while Core CPI, no less important, is expected to rise by only 0.1%.

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan, a highly regarded survey, is expected to rise up to 73.9 points, pushing the dollar higher.

Also in the US: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production are all predicted to rise.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages.

Here they are:

• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

In Britain, MPC member Spencer Dale will make a public appearance, and might hint something about next week’s rate decision. Later, Construction PMI is expected to remain bad, staying under 50. Expectations are for a small rise from 46.2 to 46.9 points.

For more on the Pound, read the British Pound forecast.

Yesterday, European consumer prices rose more than expected and the Euro went up. Today, producer prices are expected – PPI is expected to rise by 0.1%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In the US, two employment indicators are released, two days before the Non-Farm Payrolls release. Challenger Job Cuts begin, and then ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, or the “mini-NFP” is released. After a drop of 203K last month, the number is expected to be better this time – a loss of “only” 149K. This figure doesn’t always predict the NFP, but it still shakes the markets.

Later in the US, FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker will talk in Charlotte, and will face questions from the audience. The Beige Book will give a broad overview of the economy near the end of the New York session.

Just before midnight GMT, Japanese Capital Spending is released, and it’s expected to show an annualized fall of 15.8%, better than last time. The Japanese Yen is still strong, despite the new program that was announced at the emergency BOJ meeting yesterday.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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